Japan's Trade Deficit Widened to JPY 2.76 tn in Jan-25

Japan's Trade Deficit Widened to JPY 2.76 tn in Jan-25

Japan's trade deficit expanded to JPY 2.76 tn in Jan-25 (vs Jan-24; JPY 1.77 tn), surpassing market expectations of JPY 2.1 tn, as imports grew faster than exports. Imports surged 16.7% YoY to JPY 10.62 tn (26-month high), exceeding the 9.7% forecast, while exports increased 7.2% YoY to JPY 7.86 tn, marking four consecutive months of growth but below the 7.9% estimate. In 2024, Japan posted a trade deficit of JPY 5.33 tn, significantly lower than the JPY 9.52 tn gap in 2023.

RESEARCH REPORT
Nickel – Price was supported by supply cuts

• Overall production of NPI expected to decline in February, as demand remains sluggish
• Expect battery material to remain range-bound in the short term
• Maintain Underweight

(Please refer to our report here)

INDUSTRY
Trump Imposed a 25% Tariff on Cars & Semiconductors Starting Apr-25
US President Donald Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals starting 2 Apr-25. This move expands the trade war following the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum set to take effect in Mar-25. Trump stated that the tariff could increase further within a year. The tariff will significantly impact the automotive industry, with around 8 mn imported vehicles/year in the US. Automakers like Volkswagen and Hyundai could be affected, while it remains unclear whether Canada and Mexico will be exempt. The EU is negotiating to avoid the tariff. Trump is also considering additional tariffs on key trading partners, including a 10% tariff on China and a 25% tariff on Canada & Mexico, which is suspended until 4 Mar-25.

 

COMPANY
BCAS: INTP Performance in Jan-25 & Cement Outlook

INTP saw a better performance than the overall market but still declined -1.1% YoY in Jan-25. Bag cement was stable (-0.1%), with Java down -4.2% and outside Java up +5.1%. The bulk segment fell -3.7%, with Java up +3.5% but outside Java plunging -38.3%. The cement market started 2025 weak, with demand declining -5.1% YoY in Jan-25 due to heavy rain, flooding, and fewer working days from holidays. The bag market in Java fell -2.7%, while outside Java grew +1.4%. The bulk market dropped significantly, especially outside Java (-32.0%), due to a high base from new capital city construction in Jan-23. The market remains in oversupply, and the impact of infrastructure budget cuts is still uncertain.