Indonesia FDI Rebounded 4.3% YoY in 4Q25, Marking First Growth in Three Quarters

MACROECONOMY 
Indonesia FDI Rebounded 4.3% YoY in 4Q25, Marking First Growth in Three Quarters 
Indonesia’s FDI (ex-financials and oil & gas) rose 4.3% YoY to a record IDR 256.3 tn in 4Q25, reversing a 3Q25 contraction and marking the first increase in three quarters despite global uncertainty and domestic protests. For FY25, FDI edged up 0.1% to IDR 900.9 tn, a sharp slowdown from 2024’s 21% surge. Base metals attracted the largest inflows (USD 14.6 bn), followed by mining (USD 4.7 bn), with Singapore, Hong Kong, and China as top sources.Aexpects Danantara to help catalyze new FDI going forward. (Trading Economics) 

INDUSTRY 
Indonesia Weighed New Cigarette Excise Layer as Revenue Fell Short in 2025 
Indonesia’s cigarette excise revenue underperformed in 2025, reaching IDR 221.7 tn or 90.8% of the IDR 244.2 tn target, resulting in a shortfall of IDR 22.5 tn and a 2.1% YoY contraction. To address rising illegal cigarette circulation and down-trading, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa proposed adding a new excise layer in 2026 to accommodate low-priced products into the legal system and broaden the tax base, while maintaining a moratorium on excise rate hikes. The govt. targets IDR 243.5 tn excise revenue in 2026, implying c.9.8% growth vs 2025 realization, a challenging goal given structurally complex excise tiers and stagnant demand. (Bisnis.com)

COMPANY 
BCAS: Cement - Dec-25 Cement Sales Volume 
- Dec-25 domestic cement demand rebounded to 5.8mn tonnes (-0.9% MoM; +5.8% YoY) , mainly due to a low base in Dec-24 (-11.0% YoY) after regional elections and seasonal distortions (rainy season + truck bans). 
- However, FY25 demand remained weak at 62.4mn tonnes (-2.2% YoY) , with bag up only +0.5% YoY while bulk dropped sharply 8.3% YoY, reflecting softer infrastructure spending and reliance on carry-over projects from 2024. 
- INTP booked Dec-25 sales volume of 1.7mn tonnes (-1.9% MoM; -0.4% YoY) . Bringing FY25 sales volume to 18.2mn tonnes (-4.2% YoY) , with bag -1.1% YoY; bulk -10.9% YoY, weighed by price discipline and Q4 price hikes, particularly in the bag segment.