President Prabowo Outlined 2026 Fiscal Targets and Priorities

 

MACROECONOMY 
President Prabowo Outlined 2026 Fiscal Targets and Priorities 
Fiscal Targets 2026 
• Expenditure: IDR 3,786.5 tn (+9.8% YoY) 
• Revenue: IDR 3,147.7 tn (+7.3% YoY) 
• Deficit: IDR 38.8 tn (-3.5% YoY) or 2.48% of GDP (vs 2.78% FY25F) 
• Focus: zero-deficit path via cutting waste, improving BUMN governance, and boosting non-tax revenue. 

Macro Assumptions 2026 
• GDP growth: 5.4% 
• Inflation: 2.5% 
• Bond yield: 5.4% 
• USD/IDR: 16,500 
• Oil: USD 70/bbl, lifting 610k bpd 
• Gas: 984k boepd 
• Poverty: 6.5%–7.5%, extreme poverty 0–0.5% 

Eight Priorities 2026 
1. Food Security (IDR 164.4 tn) 
2. Energy Security (IDR 402.4 tn) 
3. Free Nutritious Meals (IDR 335 tn) 
4. Education (IDR 757.8 tn) 
5. Healthcare (IDR 244 tn) 
6. People’s Economy & Cooperatives 
7. Total Defense 
8. Investment & Global Trade

Indonesia’s External Debt (ULN) Reached USD 433.3 Bn in 2Q25 
Indonesia’s ULN stood at USD 433.3 bn in 2Q25, growing 6.1% YoY, slower than 6.4% YoY in 1Q25. Govt. debt reached USD 210.1 bn (+10% YoY), supported by foreign inflows into SBN amid resilient investor confidence, while private ULN remained in contraction. Govt. ULN is dominated by long-term debt (99.9%), mainly allocated to health, education, defense, construction, and transportation sectors. (Emitennews) 

INDUSTRY 
Indonesia EV Motorcycle Sales Dropped 20%-30% in 1H25 
EV motorcycle sales in Indonesia fell by around 20%-30% in 1H25 (vs 1H24; -20% to -30% YoY), as uncertainty over govt. subsidies weighed on demand. Producers have cut production due to inventory buildup at dealers and factories. While there is long-term potential in individual buyers, the lack of the IDR 7 mn per unit subsidy that was in place in 2024 remains a key drag. Producers are also exploring B2B sales to logistics and transport firms, though penetration is still minimal (~1% market share). (Kontan)

COMPANY 
BCAS: BBCA IJ - 7M25 Earnings Grew +10.5% YoY 

- BBCA Jul-25 net profit reached IDR 4.8 tn (+1.9% MoM; -1.9% YoY), bringing 7M25 net profit to IDR 34.7tn (+10.5% YoY). 
- Net interest income came in at IDR 6.8 tn (+2.7% MoM; +2.9% YoY), totaling IDR 46.6 tn in 7M25 (+5.9% YoY). 
- Operating income stood at IDR 8.8 tn in Jul-25 (+0.7% MoM; -1.2% YoY), bringing 7M25 operating income to IDR 62.4 tn (+9.4% YoY). 
- PPOP reached IDR 6.4 tn in Jul-25 (+4.8% MoM; +4.8% YoY), translating to IDR 44.6 tn in 7M25 (+13.0% YoY). 
- Provision expense spiked to IDR 326 bn in Jul-25 (+84.0% MoM; +232.5% YoY), lifting 7M25 provisioning to IDR 1.9 tn (+64.6% YoY). 
- Loan growth moderated to +11.0% YoY (Jul-24: +14.5% YoY), while deposit growth accelerated to 5.6% YoY (Jul-24: 3.7%). LDR improved to 79.5% (Jul-24: 75.6%), with CASA ratio stood at 83.4% (Jul-24: 82.2%)