Indonesia's Trade Surplus Expanded to USD 3.45 bn in Jan-25

Indonesia's Trade Surplus Expanded to USD 3.45 bn in Jan-25

Indonesia's trade surplus widened to USD 3.45 bn in Jan-25 (vs Jan-24; USD 2.0 bn), surpassing market estimates of USD 1.91 bn. The increase was driven by a 2.67% YoY drop in imports, defying forecasts of a 9.95% rise. The decline was linked to the rupiah depreciation, weaker purchasing power, and holiday effects. Meanwhile, exports grew 4.88% YoY, missing expectations of a 6.99% rise. For full-year 2024, Indonesia's trade surplus narrowed to USD 31.04 bn (vs 2023; USD 36.89 bn).

 

RESEARCH REPORT
BBRI – Be Patient and Wait

• As expected, a weak FY24; nevertheless, we need to be patient
• CASA growth still dominated by higher CA instead of SA
• While share price has been punished, we wait a bit longer for fresh new management
• Maintain Our HOLD call of IDR4,400

(Please refer to our report here)

 

COMPANY
BCAS: BBCA - 1M25 Earnings Jumped +5.5% YoY

- BBCA interest income grew modestly to IDR 7.7 tn in Jan-25 (+5.2% YoY). However, something interesting is that the interest expense grew slightly compared in Dec-24, but lowered in yearly standing at IDR 1.0 tn in 1M25 (+2.0% MoM; -3.2% YoY). This leads to a higher NII in 1M25 reaching IDR 6.7 tn (-1.6% MoM; +6.7% YoY).
- Non-interest income rose significantly to IDR 2.0 tn in 1M25 (+28.2% YoY) but was slightly lower than Dec-24 (-1.6% MoM). Interest expense in Jan-25 reached IDR 2.3 tn (-39.3% MoM; +2.3% YoY)
- Provisioning increased significantly YoY to IDR 568 bn (+204.3% YoY) but was lower than in Dec-24 (-226.3% MoM). Despite this, PPOP remained strong at IDR 6.4 tn (+26.5% MoM; +14.5% YoY).
- Net profit surged to IDR 4.7 tn (+11.6% MoM; +5.8% YoY).
- NIM stood at 6.0% (vs. 5.9% in 1M24), LDR at 79.7% (vs. 72.1% in 1M24). Loan growth remained strong at 15.1% (vs. 14.3% in 1M24), while deposit growth was lower at 3.9% (vs. 5.5% in 1M24).