Indonesia Palm Oil Output Rose 13% YoY to 39.0 mn tons in Aug-25

INDUSTRY 
Indonesia Palm Oil Output Rose 13% YoY to 39.0 mn tons in Aug-25 
GAPKI reported palm oil (CPO & PKO) production reached 39.04 mn tons (+13.1% YoY) supported by higher plantation productivity and biodiesel demand. Domestic biodiesel consumption climbed 5.7% MoM to 1.11 mn tons, while export value grew 3.5% MoM to USD 3.82 bn with YTD total USD 24.78 bn (+43% YoY). (Kontan)

COMPANY 
BCAS: AUTO IJ - 3Q25 net profit +22% yoy; above ours and cons' estimate 

- 3Q25 net profit rose 22.2% yoy to IDR 630 bn, 10% above our estimate of IDR 570 bn; 9M25 net profit accounted for 77% of ours and 75% of consensus estimate (note: historically 9M contributed 72% of full year net profit). 
- 3Q25 Manufacturing revenue still inclined +3.2% yoy despite lower domestic 4W production in 3Q25 (-6.5% yoy); while trading revenue increased +8% yoy. 
- 3Q25 Income from affiliates still become crucial contributor to bottom line with 16% yoy growth. 
Our view: 3Q25 performance was solid thanks to robust 2W sales and 4W export market. 9M25, AUTO showed resilience performance with +4.5% yoy in revenue and +15% yoy in normalized net profit, also with inclined margin. We maintained BUY recommendation with TP IDR 2,880

BCAS: BIRD IJ - 3Q25 - Slightly Missed at 71.6% of Ours and 72.0% of Street, Dragged by Lower Profitability

- BIRD's 3Q25 top-line rose to IDR 1.5tn (+6.0% QoQ, +8.5% YoY), maintaining momentum since early 2025, driven by a higher operating fleet. This brought 9M25 revenue to IDR 4.1tn (+12.4% YoY), in line with our projection (71.2%) and the Street (71.9%), meeting 99.7% of our 3Q25 forecast. 
-Unfortunately, lower ARPV and rising operational costs compressed 3Q25 GPM to 30.4% (-320bps QoQ, -260bps YoY), bringing 9M25 gross profit to IDR 1.3tn (Our: 69.6%, Cons: 70.2%). 
- Furthermore, increased personnel and maintenance costs from new fleet additions, combined with lower ARPV, weighed on operating profit, which declined to IDR 151bn (-22.2% QoQ, -18.5% YoY), with OPM narrowing to 10.4% (-380bps QoQ, -350bps YoY). This pulled 3Q25 net profit down to IDR 147bn (-13.5% QoQ, -15.1% YoY), while 9M25 net profit reached IDR 483bn (+10.6% YoY), in line with our estimate (71.6%) and Street (72.0%). 
- In overall, we maintain our view on BIRD, supported by expected recovery in mobility, but remain cautious on downside risks including intensifying competition and potential decline in asset disposal gains. Additional details to be disclosed during Wednesday's earnings call.