US Jobless Claims Jumped to 236K in Early Dec-25

Indonesia Prepared KUR Loan Forgiveness for Flood-Affected Farmers in Sumatra 
The govt. will implement KUR loan write-offs and relief for farmers in Aceh, West Sumatra, and North Sumatra affected by floods and landslides, with the calculated amount ready pending completion of technical regulations. Coordinating Minister Airlangga Hartarto stated the scheme follows President Prabowo’s directive assuring farmers that KUR obligations will be cancelled, alongside land-damage protection and food supply support from national reserves until local output recovers. The govt. is also expediting infrastructure repairs in impacted areas, including the Bailey Bridge in Teupin Mane, targeted for completion within a week. (Kontan) 

U.S. Said Indonesia Backed Away from Trade Commitments, Putting Deal at Risk 
The Financial Times reported U.S. officials believe Indonesia has stepped back from several binding commitments in the bilateral trade agreement, including plans to remove non-tariff barriers and act on digital trade. FT sources said Jakarta openly stated it could not implement what had been agreed and sought to renegotiate terms into non-binding commitments, raising concerns the U.S. may cancel the deal. Indonesia’s Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs said negotiations remain ongoing with no specific issues, calling such dynamics normal in trade talks. (CNBC) 

Mexico Raised Import Tariffs Up to 50% on Asian Goods Including Indonesia 
Mexico’s Senate approved tariff hikes of up to 50% starting 2026 on imports from China and several Asian countries, including Indonesia, covering autos, auto parts, textiles, apparel, plastics, and steel. The measure, passed with 76 votes in favor, targets products from countries without trade agreements with Mexico and is expected to generate USD 3.76 bn in extra revenue as the govt. works to narrow its fiscal deficit. China protested, warning the move weakens bilateral trade, while analysts viewed the policy as an effort to reassure the U.S. ahead of the next USMCA review. (Reuters)

US Central Bank Balance Sheet Dropped to USD 6.54 tn 
The US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet declined to USD 6,535.8 bn as of 3-Dec-25, down from USD 6,552.4 bn the previous week. This marked a continued downtrend as the Fed unwinds its asset holdings. Historically, the balance sheet has averaged USD 3,905.3 bn from 2002–2025, reaching a peak of USD 8,965.5 bn in Apr-22 during pandemic-era stimulus, and a low of USD 712.8 bn in Jan-03. (Trading Economics) 

US Trade Deficit Narrowed Sharply to USD 52.8 bn in Sep-25 
The US trade deficit shrank to USD 52.8 bn in Sep-25 (Aug: USD 59. bn; Cons: USD 63.3 bn)—marking the lowest gap since Jun-20. Exports rose 3.0% MoM to USD 289.3 bn, led by nonmonetary gold, pharmaceuticals, and financial services, partially offset by weaker sales in computers, travel, and transport. Imports edged up 0.6% to USD 342.1 bn, driven by pharmaceuticals, gold, and tech accessories, while purchases of crude oil and electronics declined. The largest deficits were with Ireland (USD -18.2 bn), Mexico (USD -17.8 bn), and the EU (USD -17.8 bn), while the China gap narrowed to USD -11.4 bn. (Trading Economics) 

US Jobless Claims Jumped to 236K in Early Dec-25 
US initial jobless claims surged by 44K WoW to 236K for the week ending 6-Dec-25 (vs Cons: 220K), breaking a four-week decline streak and marking the largest weekly rise since Mar-20. The spike followed the Thanksgiving holiday, which often distorts seasonal patterns. Meanwhile, continuing claims dropped to 1.84 mn (29-Nov-25), the lowest since Apr-12-25 (vs Prev: 1.94 mn; Cons: 1.95 mn), signaling sustained labor market resilience despite short-term volatility. (Trading Economics)

COMPANY

BCAS: INKP IJ - 3Q25 – Surprise Earnings from Forex Gain, Above Our and Street Expectations
-INKP booked stable 3Q25 revenue at USD 799mn (+2.4% QoQ, -2.3% YoY) despite soft pulp prices. Cumulative 9M25 revenue stood at USD 2.4bn (-2.4% YoY), tracking slightly below our estimate (70.1%) and consensus (71.1%). 
- Supported by recent overhead cost efficiencies, INKP delivered solid operational performance, with 3Q25 gross profit rose to USD 265mn (+9.8% QoQ, +0.4% YoY), while EBIT hiked to USD 171mn (+10.1% QoQ, +5.8% YoY). However, 9M25 gross profit remained soft at USD 739mn (-7.8% YoY), and EBIT fell to USD 465mn (-12.1% YoY). 
- At the bottom line, the key surprise came from a one-off forex translation gain of USD 74mn (vs. a USD 56mn loss in 2Q25), which lifted 3Q25 net profit to USD 162mn (+587.6% QoQ). This brought 9M25 net profit to USD 326mn (+44.1% YoY), exceeding both our estimate (92.8%) and consensus (87.3%).

Bumi Resources (BUMI) Issued IDR 780 bn Bonds for Acquisition Funding 
BUMI issued IDR 780 bn Sustainable Bonds I Phase III/2025 with a fixed 9% coupon and 5-year tenor, maturing 15-Dec-30. Net proceeds of IDR 340.88 bn will fund the planned acquisition and capital injection into Jubilee Metals Ltd (JML), IDR 333.6 bn will repay obligations to PT Supreme Global Investment (SGI) related to PT Laman Mining, and IDR 97.50 bn will be lent to WFL for 2026 capex and working capital ahead of production. The issuance is part of BUMI’s IDR 5 tn program, arranged by a syndicate of local securities firms. (Stockwatch) 

GoTo (GOTO) Covered BPJS Contributions for Hundreds of Thousands of Top-Performing Gojek Partners 
GOTO expanded its partner-welfare program by covering BPJS Ketenagakerjaan (JKK, JKM) and optional BPJS Kesehatan contributions for hundreds of thousands of high-performing two- and four-wheeled Gojek partners classified as “Mitra Juara,” making it the first digital ecosystem in Indonesia to offer such benefits. The rollout begins with 10,000 Mitra Juara in Surabaya, with registration opening 11-Dec-25 for coverage effective 02-Jan-26, while partners outside Surabaya can register starting 01- Jan-26 for coverage effective 02-Feb-26. (Kontan) 

Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG) Issued IDR 1.6 tn Bonds and IDR 600 bn Sukuk for Refinancing 
TBIG issued IDR 1.6 tn Sustainable Bonds VII Phase II, comprising IDR 347.99 bn (5.50% coupon, 3-year tenor) and IDR 1.25 tn (5.85% coupon, 5-year tenor), to refinance senior unsecured obligations, including Sustainable Bonds IV Phase I Series A maturing Dec25 and part of its Rupiah loans. TBIG also issued IDR 600 bn Sukuk Ijarah I Phase II, including IDR 200 bn (3-year tenor, annual ijarah return of IDR 11.0 bn) and IDR 400 bn (5-year tenor, annual ijarah return of IDR 23.4 bn). As of 30-Sep-25, total debt stood at IDR 28.65 tn post netting USD hedges. (Stockwatch) 

Sillo Maritime (SHIP) Added One VLGC to Enter International Shipping Market 
SHIP secured a one-year firm charter, extendable by another year, with a Singapore-based international trader and prepared to enter global shipping by acquiring a Very Large Gas Carrier (VLGC) to be registered under the Indonesian flag. Management said the VLGC purchase brings FY25 capex realization to 66% of the USD 150 mn budget and is expected to contribute around 5% to FY26 revenue, supporting SHIP’s long-term strategy to expand gas-shipping capacity and strengthen competitiveness across offshore fleets ranging from FSO, oil and gas tankers, to OSVs. The co. aims to capture rising domestic and international gastransport demand while enhancing service reliability and operational reach. (Kontan) 

Jaya Real Property (JRPT) Injected IDR 43.75 bn Into Subsidiary Sarana Pembangunan Jaya (SPJ) 
JRPT injected IDR 43.75 bn into SPJ through the purchase of 3,600 newly issued shares at IDR 12.15 mn/sh as part of SPJ’s IDR 175 bn capital increase, aimed at raising JRPT’s 25% stake and strengthening returns from its associate investment. Management noted the funds will support SPJ’s land-leasing activities for education facilities, enhancing future dividend potential. As of 3Q25, JRPT booked revenue of IDR 2.26 tn (+10.8% YoY) and net profit of IDR 903.10 bn (+15% YoY). (Kontan) 

Pollux Hotels (POLI) Issued IDR 500 bn Bonds for Subsidiary Debt Refinancing 
POLI issued IDR 500 bn sustainability-linked bonds, allocating c.90% or IDR 434.20 bn to refinance debt owed to its wholly owned subsidiary CSK, which will use the funds to repay Bank Mandiri and strengthen working capital. The remaining c.10% supports POLI’s solar-energy plan, targeting 40 kWp installation by 2029, expected to cut emissions by 184,320 kg CO₂e and lower operating costs 20–40%. The bonds consist of Series A (5.855% coupon, 3-year tenor) and Series B (6.25% coupon, 5-year tenor), rated idAAA by Pefindo. (EBuzz) 

Kencana Energi (KEEN) Reported Landslide Impact on PLTA Pakkat, No Disruption to Overall Operations 
KEEN confirmed a landslide near its PLTA Pakkat on 03-Dec-25 caused temporary shutdown and facility damage, now under technical assessment by an appointed consultant. All 30 workers remained safe and continued asset safeguarding while rehabilitation planning proceeds. Although PLTA Pakkat stopped supplying electricity to PLN, KEEN stated there is no legal impact, financial impact is under review, and all assets are insured including business interruption. The incident does not affect KEEN’s business continuity as three other PLTA projects operate normally, with PLTM Salu Noling targeted for COD in 2Q26. (Kontan)