BCAS: PGAS IJ - 3Q25 – Recovery Continues, In‑line at 75.8% (Ours) and 74.2% (Cons)

COMPANY

BCAS: PGAS IJ - 3Q25 - Recovery Continues, In‑line at 75.8% (Ours) and 74.2% (Cons)

- PGAS posted a solid 3Q25 revenue of USD 985mn (+1.4% QoQ, +0.8% YoY), supported by higher gas trading volumes at c.835 bbtud (+4.0% QoQ) and steady upstream output of 17,213 mmscfd (+0.6% QoQ), bringing 9M25 revenue to USD 2,923mn (+3.8% YoY), in line with our estimate (77.0%) and consensus (76.3%).

- Along with margin recovery, 3Q25 gross profit improved to USD 183mn (+2.0% QoQ, +1.4% YoY). However, weak 1Q25 performance remains a drag on 9M25 gross profit, which fell to USD 502mn (-14.5% YoY), in line with our estimate (71.1%) but below consensus (65.1%).

- Supported by topline improvement, 3Q25 bottom-line margin improved to 9.5% (+100 bps QoQ, +160 bps YoY), driving net profit to USD 93mn (+13.4% QoQ, +21.7% YoY), partly driven by lower minority interest. However, 9M25 net profit remained weak at USD 238mn (-9.7% YoY), in line with our forecast (75.8%) but slightly below consensus (74.2%).

- Overall, we expect margin recovery to continue, supported by solid improvements since 2Q25. Valuation-wise, we maintain our HOLD call on PGAS with a TP of IDR 1,800/sh. Further insights will be shared following Wednesday's earnings call.

BCAS: MEDC: 3Q25 - Solid Operational Recovery, but Associate Loss Keeps Earnings Below Estimates

- In 3Q25, the additional around 20% stake in Corridor PSC supported stronger topline growth, with revenue rising to USD 619 mn (+7.0% QoQ, +0.2% YoY) on higher production of 150 mboepd (+16.7% QoQ, +6.3% YoY) despite lower oil and gas prices. This brought 9M25 revenue to USD 1.8 bn (-1.5% YoY), in line with our estimate (75.5%) and consensus (77.0%).

- Higher lifting volumes increased 3Q25 cash cost to USD 9.2/boe (+6.7% QoQ, +4.5% YoY), pushing COGS to USD 396 mn (+6.7% QoQ, +1.7% YoY). Nevertheless, gross profit remained resilient at USD 222 mn (+7.7% QoQ, -2.5% YoY), while EBITDA climbed to USD 323 mn (+10.5% QoQ, -3.9% YoY), resulting in 9M25 EBITDA of USD 946 mn (-3.4% YoY), above our estimate (83.6%) and slightly above consensus (79.8%).

- The quarter also marked solid earnings rebound, with 3Q25 net profit surging to USD 48 mn (+147.7% QoQ, -31.7% YoY), although still below last year's level. However, weak performance from AMMN continued to weigh on results, dragging 9M25 net profit to USD 86 mn (-68.7% YoY), below both our estimate (38.8%) and consensus (50.5%).

Overall, we maintain our BUY rating on MEDC, supported by expected incremental contribution from the Corridor block and upside potential from the newly acquired Sakakemang block. That said, we will review our forecasts given the ongoing earnings drag from AMMN.