Indonesia's Current Account Deficit Narrowed to USD 1.15 bn in 4Q24

Indonesia's Current Account Deficit Narrowed to USD 1.15 bn in 4Q24

Indonesia's current account deficit fell to USD 1.15 bn in 4Q24 (vs 4Q23; USD 1.38 bn), marking the 7th consecutive quarterly shortfall but the smallest in this sequence (0.3% of GDP). The trade surplus remained stable at USD 11.34 bn (vs USD 11.39 bn). For 2024, the current account deficit widened to USD 8.86 bn (0.6% of GDP) from USD 2.04 bn (0.1% of GDP) in 2023 due to a lower trade surplus amid weak foreign demand and strong domestic consumption, staying within BI's forecast range of 0.1%-0.9% of GDP. (Trading Economics)

COMPANY
BCAS: AALI – FY24 results – above ours but inline with street estimates

- FY24 earnings increased by 8.7% YoY to IDR1.1tn, we deemed the result above ours as it formed 104% of our forecast and inline with street expectation since it formed 102% of consensus. 4Q24 earnings changed by +15.4% QoQ and 49.9% YoY to IDR346bn.
- FY24 revenue increased by 5.2% YoY to IDR21.8tn, forming 106% of our forecast and 106% of consensus. 4Q24 revenue changed by -7.5% QoQ and +9.2% YoY to IDR5.5tn.
- FY24 revenue from CPO and its derivatives increased by 5% YoY to IDR20.2tn. PK and derivatives revenue increased by 8% YoY to IDR1.6tn. 4Q24 CPO and its derivatives revenue changed by +7.8% YoY and -6.7% QoQ to IDR5.1tn. PK and derivatives revenue changed by +29% YoY and -20.7% QoQ to IDR433bn
- FY24 COGS increased slightly by 2.8% YoY to IDR18.5tn. 4Q24 COGS declined by 20.2% QoQ and 1.2% YoY to IDR4.2tn.

Overall, the result was above ours on the back of lower cost than what we expected. And in line with consensus expectation. However 4Q24 shows that AALI growth was decelerating as we have El-Nino last year, and we expect this growth deceleration to continue until mid of this year. So far the company have not published its operational numbers. And we will review our forecast and target price later.