The Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.5%–3.75% in Mar-26
The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% for a 2nd straight meeting in Mar-26, in line with expectations. Policymakers noted solid economic expansion, low job gains, and somewhat elevated inflation, with uncertainty around the war with Iran. The Fed still expects one rate cut this year and another in 2027, unchanged from Dec-26 projections, though timing remains unclear. GDP growth forecasts were revised up to 2.4% for 2026 (vs 2.3%) and 2.3% for 2027 (vs 2%). Unemployment is seen at 4.4% in 2026 (unchanged) and 4.3% in 2027 (revised up from 4.2%). Both PCE and Core PCE inflation are now expected at 2.7% for 2026 (vs 2.4% and 2.5%), and 2.2% for 2027 (vs 2.1%). (Trading Economics)

US PPI Prices Rose 0.7% MoM in Feb-26
US PPI prices rose 0.7% month-over-month in Feb-26 (vs Jan-26: 0.5%), above forecasts of 0.3%, marking the biggest increase in seven months. Goods prices soared 1.1%—the most since Aug-23— led by a 48.9% jump in fresh and dry vegetable prices. The indexes for diesel fuel, chicken eggs, gasoline, jet fuel, and tobacco products also rose. Conversely, jewelry and jewelry product prices fell 4%, with decreases also seen in home heating oil and soft drink costs. Meanwhile, services prices rose 0.5%, the smallest increase in three months, with traveler accommodation services rising 5.7% making the largest contribution. The core PPI increased 0.5% (vs Jan-26: 0.8%), above forecasts of 0.3%. On an annual basis, headline producer inflation jumped to 3.4% (vs Jan-26: 2.9%), the highest in a year and above forecasts it would remain at 2.9%, while core producer inflation also rose to 3.9%. (Trading Economics)

Indonesia Govt. Planned to Increase Coal Production Quota Post-Eid to Support State Budget
Indonesia govt. planned to reverse its initial plan to cut 2026 coal production quota and instead increase output target to support APBN, with final decision to be executed after Eid following inter-ministerial discussions. The move comes as authorities aim to capitalize on elevated global coal prices, which recently peaked at ~USD 146.5/ton in Mar-26, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The policy shift also implies cancellation of earlier proposal to reduce production to 600 mn tons from prior approval of 1.2 bn tons, with potential introduction of export levy to maximize state revenue. (Bloomberg) Global Bond Yields Rise Amid Middle East Tensions and Fading Rate Cut Expectations Global bond yields increased, with US 10Y rising to 4.38% (+3.3 bps), nearing an eight-month high, while yields in the UK, Japan, Australia, and Germany also moved higher. The uptick was driven by fading expectations of monetary easing alongside persistent Middle East tensions, which continue to pressure global markets. Meanwhile, Brent oil prices remained elevated above USD 100/bbl, reflecting ongoing supply risks and geopolitical uncertainty, with investors still awaiting clearer signals on potential de-escalation. (Bloomberg Technoz)

Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS) Plans Hong Kong IPO for Dual Listing
EMAS has filed for an IPO in Hong Kong as part of its dual listing plan to expand investor base and access global capital, supported by production growth from the Pani gold mine. The co. reported net loss of USD 27.5 mn in FY25, widening from USD 12.7 mn in FY24, while the Pani project holds 7 mn oz resources and 5.2 mn oz reserves, with UBS and Citic Securities acting as joint sponsors. (Kontan)

Bukit Asam (PTBA) Secured 53.2 mn Tons Coal Production Quota for 2026
PTBA secured approval for a maximum coal production quota of 53.2 mn tons for 2026 as confirmed on 16-Mar-26, part of govt.’s broader RKAB approvals reaching 250–300 mn tons or ~50% of national target. The quota aligns with PTBA’s stable production trend, following ~9% YoY output growth up to 9M25. The approval supports operational visibility for 2026 while broader RKAB approvals are accelerated ahead of the 31-Mar-26 relaxation deadline. (CNBC)

Fixed Income Daily Notes 25 Maret 2026

Fixed Income Daily Notes 25 Maret 2026

Fixed Income

25 March 2026 - 09.03am

Fixed Income Daily Notes 25 Maret 2026

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