Indonesia Retail Sales Rose 3.7% YoY in Sep-25

MACROECONOMY 
Indonesia Retail Sales Rose 3.7% YoY in Sep-25 
Indonesia's retail sales grew 3.7% YoY in Sep-25 (vs Aug-25; +3.5%), marking the fifth straight month of expansion supported by govt. measures to sustain purchasing power. Growth was led by food, beverages & tobacco (+5.4% vs +4.8%), automotive parts (+12.4% vs +11.3%), fuel (+10.6% vs +11.7%), and cultural goods (+2.6% vs +2.5%), while household appliances (-2.6% vs -1.8%) and ICT equipment (-27.6% vs -28.9%) remained weak. Clothing sales fell 7.1%, reversing an 8.3% gain in Aug-25 — the first decline in four months. On a monthly basis, retail activity dropped 2.4% MoM, compared to a 0.6% rise in Aug-25. (Trading Economics)

Indonesia's VAT Collection Ratio Fell to 45.2% in 3Q25 
Indonesia's VAT Gross Collection ratio declined to 45.2% in 3Q25, marking the lowest level since the pandemic despite steady consumption growth. The ratio had peaked at 61% in 3Q22 before falling to 59.1% in 3Q23 and 55.7% in 3Q24. According to MUC Tax Research Institute, the decline was driven by exemptions on essential and strategic goods, ongoing government incentives such as VAT subsidies for housing and EVs, and system disruptions in the Coretax platform. (Kontan) 

INDUSTRY 
Minister Bahlil Opened Possibility of Raising Coal DMO Above 25% 
Indonesia's Minister of ESDM, Bahlil Lahadalia, signaled that the domestic market obligations (DMO) could exceed 25% of total production. Speaking before Commission XII of the House on 11 Nov-25, Bahlil said the govt. might revise mining work plans (RKAB) to prioritize national energy security. Under current regulations, coal miners must allocate at least 25% of output for domestic use, with PLN's purchase price fixed at USD 70/ton. Bahlil also noted ongoing supervision of companies violating DMO rules and confirmed that the related ministerial regulation—covering DMO and new mining permit allocations for cooperatives and SMEs—had completed harmonization and would soon be enacted. (Kontan)

COMPANY 
BCAS : 10M25 - 4W Wholesales & 2W Sales

- Astra recorded sales of 34,888 units (-20% yoy and +4% mom) in Oct 2025 with market share declining to 47% (vs 54% in Sep-25). Non Astra sales rose 15.7% yoy and 37% qoq, driven by BYD. As the results, total 4W wholesales dropped only slight decline 4.4% yoy and rose 19% mom in Oct-25. 
- BYD took the spotlight with 10,785 unit sales thanks to Atto 1 delivery. Inline with the wholesales, BYD booked retail sales of 9,732 units. 
- 10M25 sales fell 10.6%, a slight better than 9M25 at11.3% yoy, accounting for 71-85% of Gaikindo's target of 750-900k sales in 2025. Looking from 10M25 data, we believe the upper target 900k possibly to achieve with 67k/month in Nov and Dec 2025. 
- 2W domestic sales showed resilience +8% yoy and 4% mom, cumulative 10M25 sales reached 5.43 mn units or +0.2% yoy