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Tim Riset

Tim ahli kami merangkum berbagai macam informasi penting dari Pasar Indonesia dan global untuk membantu Anda menentukan pilihan investasi Anda

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Seiring dengan perkembangan industri keuangan dan teknologi informasi yang tiada henti, riset keuangan dapat menjadi faktor penentu dalam pembuatan keputusan investasi yang membawa kesuksesan ataupun kegagalan. Untuk itu, telah menjadi tugas utama kami untuk memberikan panduan bagi para nasabah agar mereka dapat mengembangkan pemahaman yang lebih baik tentang berbagai risiko dalam trading maupun kegiatan investasi lainnya.
BCA Sekuritas telah mempunyai landasan yang kokoh dalam riset keuangan berkat dukungan para ahli dan analis yang obyektif serta sinergi yang baik dengan grup BCA. Nikmati keuntungan dari pendekatan unik kami yang telah terbukti, dan buatlah prediksi yang lebih baik hari ini.

 

Riset Saham Harian

22 August 2019

BCAS Vista 22-Aug-19

MACRO

Corporate tax reduction may be implemented in 2021

The Taxation Directorate General (DJP) stated that the implementation of corporate tax reduction (25% to 20%) will not be conducted in the near future, with expectation to be implemented in 2021. Government is currently finalizing the tax reduction amount, whether to directly lower the tariff to 20% or through phased reduction. (Investor Daily)

 

COMPANY

Ace Hardware (ACES) to open its 186th outlet

On 23-Aug-19, ACES plans to open its 186th outlet located in Pasar Minggu, Jakarta Selatan (700sqm). This is the 11th ACES’ outlet which opened in 2019. Note that in 2019, ACES targets to open 20 outlets with the allocated IDR400bn capex. (Kontan)

 

ADHI public expose takeaways:

  • LRT Jabodebek phase I progress is still pending land acquisitions, where it is targeted to be completed by Sep-19, project completion by Jul-20 and operations by early 2021.  Phase II, Cibubur – Bogor, will cost lower than LRT phase I, with a total investment of IDR27tn, where ADHI will chip in IDR4.2tn with the remaining by Kereta Api Indonesia (KAI)
  • LRT Jabodebek's payment has reached IDR7.1tn (as of Jul-19; 68% progress) from a total of IDR14tn. Currently ADHI is still waiting for another IDR3.1tn payment from LRT for the Oct-18 until Mar-19 progress.
  • As of Jul-19, ADHI's new contracts has amounted to IDR6.1tn, reaching 27% of company’s FY19 total new contract target. The new contracts include construction of Bank Mandiri Building in Jakarta (IDR207bn), Asmat Bridge in Papua (IDR278.9bn), Harapan Kita Hospital (IDR265.1bn) and The Park Mall Semarang (IDR273.1bn). The largest contribution still comes from construction, EPC, and property.
  • The company's Transit Oriented Development (TOD) will be constructed by Adhi Commuter Property (ACP). Currently, marketing sales of TOD, particularly in Eastern Green in East Bekasi has reached 70% with the company's target reaching IDR1.4tn in marketing sales. ADHI has allocated IDR2tn for land acquisitions. The Company also aims to list ACP by 1Q20.

Comment: payment of LRT I would be a crucial step before ADHI can start its 2nd phase of LRT Cibubur - Bogor, as net gearing was high at 137% in 1H19. ADHI's 2019 new order book growth will be soft compared to last year, with risk likely on the downside. Our last rating on ADHI was a BUY with TP of IDR1,600. Currently, ADHI is trading at 2019F PER of 6.3x.

 

Bank Central Asia (BBCA) to operate Alipay and Wechat Pay transactions early 2020

BBCA targets to complete its collaboration process with Alipay and Wechat Pay in early 2020. According to the management, this will allow Alipay and Wechat Pay transactions from cooperating merchants to go through BBCA’s system. (Investor Daily)

 

BRI Agro plans to do right issue with the target of IDR700bn in Sep-19

BRI Agro (AGRO) plans to issue 3bn new shares (12.32% of total shares) in Sep19, in order to increase its core capital by IDR700bn, in order to enter into BUKU III category.

Comment: Currently AGRO has total capital of IDR4.5tn, and after the right issue the capital will go up to IDR5.2tn which can be classified as BUKU III.

 

Citibank canceled loan to INDF

Citibank has canceled a loan of USD140mn to INDF. This cancellation was mainly because of INDF decided to leave RSPO scheme for its palm oil business. (Investor Daily)

Comment: the amount of loan is accounted only about 6% of INDF total interest bearing debt and Company has no urgency to utilize that loan. We think Company has no issue to process loan at other banks, especially from local banks. So far, banks registered as creditor for INDF are MUFG, Mizuho, BTPN, BMRI, and BBCA. 

 

Jasa Marga (JSMR) to operate several new toll roads and to issue IDR2tn bonds

JSMR’s CFO, Donny Arsal, stated that company target to operate Jakarta – Cikampek II Elevated, Balikpapan – Samarinda and Pandaan – Malang section IV  by end of this year. Currently construction progress of Jakarta – Cikampek II elevated has reached 86%, while Balikpapan – Samarinda construction progress has reached 96.8% with land acquisition progress of 99.3%. In separate news, JSMR plans to issue IDR1tn-IDR2tn bonds and IDR1tn Infrastructure fund, targeting a total proceeds of IDR2tn with 5-year tenor and coupon rate within 8.5% - 9%. The proceed will be used for capital expenditure. (Investor Daily, Bisnis Indonesia)

 

MNCN entered a JV with iQiyi

MNCN and iQiyi have agreed to set up a JV to operate OTT in Indonesia, where MNCN will hold 51% while the latter will hold 49%. Both MNC and iQIYI will contribute their library to the JV, where iQIYI will provide the technology and its future development while MNCN will be responsible for marketing and promotion as well as regulatory issues. The JV will offer a freemium model, which will do both AVOD and SVOD and targeted to start operation in 4Q19. We note that iQiyi is the largest OTT platform in China and is part of Baidu. (Company)

Comments: With the backup of the largest OTT in China, we believe that the JV will have an exposure to a large Chinese content. Based on our talk with the management, content cost will be minimal as both parties will open their inventories, while exclusive contents (new content/localized content) will be made through MNC Studio. Marketing and promotions will be marginal as MNCN will put it on all their existing channels. While capital injections and the format of the JV are still pending further discussions, but management has hinted that the JV will not be consolidated to MNCN’s books. With the minimal expenses and a hybrid business model (AVOD and SVOD) should provide MNCN with additional margin. We have not incorporate this JV into our model, hence we see a potential upward revisions to our 2020F earnings forecast. Our last call on MNCN is a BUY with IDR1,950 TP.

 

SMBR to invest IDR6tn in new plant

SMBR is planning to build a new plant in Jambi, with a production capacity of up to 2mn ton/year. The construction is expected to start on 4Q19 costing around IDR6tn. (Investor Daily)

 

PTPP consortium to develop of Jakarta International Stadium 

Jakarta Propertindo has appointed PTPP consortium to construct Jakarta International Stadium with a project value of IDR4tn. The consortium includes WEGE and JKON. JIS will be constructed for 26 months with completion target  by end of 2021. (Bisnis Indonesia) 

 

Patrick Walujo and Jerry Ng acquires 51% of ARTO's ownership

Patrick Walujo and Jerry Ng will acquire 13.35% and 37.65% of Bank Artos Indonesia’s (ARTO) shares, respectively, from the founding family. The new owners plan to focus Bank Artos as a digital banking. Post the acquisition, the founding family will own 29% of ARTO's shares. Note that, Bank Artos will hold EGM on 30-Sep-19. (Bisnis Indonesia)

 

Daily Research bonds

16 August 2019

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BCAS Insight 16-Aug-19

Market Summary

  • Pagi ini, mayoritas bursa Asia Pasifik kembali dibuka negative namun dengan minim pergerakan (Topix -0,40%, Kospi -0,80%, ASX 200 -0,10%, S&P 500 Futures +0,10%) dengan pasar utang di bebagai negara mengalami penurunan imbal hasil sebagi refleksi dari pergerakan inverted curve di treasury AS. Yield govies 10Y New Zealand untuk pertama kalinya jatuh di bawah 1,00%, dimana 10Y Jepang turun ke level -0,25% yang merupakan posisi terendah sejak 2016, serta 10Y treasury terus bergerak menurun ke 1,52%, terendah dalam 3 tahun. Sebagai catatan, sejak awal pekan ini, yield 10Y treasury sudah turun sebanyak 23bps.      
  • Sementara itu, pelaku pasar akan menantikan petunjuk dan komentar dari Gubernur The Fed jelang pertemuan para pejabat bank sentral dan institusi keuangan global pada even tahunan di Jackson Hole, Wyoming pada akhir pekan depan.
  • Yen bergerak melemah ke level 106,08/US$, begitupula Euro yang bergerak relative melemah ke level US$1,1110/EUR.  
  • Harga minyak mentah WTI naik sedikit ke level US$54,80/bbl
  • Rupiah pagi ini dibuka dengan penguatan tipis ke 14.265/US$.
  • Imbal hasil dari FR0078, acuan SUN 10Y ditutup stabil di 7,451%.

Bond Market & Econ News

  • Perusahaan Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo) memproyeksikan total penerbitan surat utang hingga akhir 2019 mendekati Rp 130 triliun, jumlah ini tidak jauh berbeda dari total penerbitan surat utang di tahun lalu. Pefindo sendiri melaporkan bahwa telah mengantongi mandat pemeringkatan obligasi korporasi hingga 12 Agustus 2019 sebanyak Rp 48,69 triliun. Penerbitan terbanyak berasal Penawaran Umum Berkelanjutan (PUB) baru sebanyak Rp 13 triliun dan realisasi PUB yang pernah diterbitkan sebelumnya sebanyak Rp 8,8 triliun.
  • Neraca perdagangan Indonesia pada Juli 2019 mengalami defisit US$ 0,06 miliar, level balance terendah dibanding dua bulan sebelumnya yang membukukan surplus, dimana di bulan Mei dan Juli lalu masing-masing mencapai US$ 0,19 miliar dan US$ 0,22 miliar. Namun, angka tersebut jauh lebih baik dari proyeksi pasar yang sebelumnya mengestimasi terjadi defisit lebih dari US$ 0,40 miliar di bulan Juli. Defisit yang terjadi pada Juli terutama akibat penurunan surplus neraca perdagangan nonmigas di tengah defisit neraca dagang migas yang membaik.
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