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Tim Riset

Tim ahli kami merangkum berbagai macam informasi penting dari Pasar Indonesia dan global untuk membantu Anda menentukan pilihan investasi Anda

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+62 21 23587222

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research@bcasekuritas.co.id

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Seiring dengan perkembangan industri keuangan dan teknologi informasi yang tiada henti, riset keuangan dapat menjadi faktor penentu dalam pembuatan keputusan investasi yang membawa kesuksesan ataupun kegagalan. Untuk itu, telah menjadi tugas utama kami untuk memberikan panduan bagi para nasabah agar mereka dapat mengembangkan pemahaman yang lebih baik tentang berbagai risiko dalam trading maupun kegiatan investasi lainnya.
BCA Sekuritas telah mempunyai landasan yang kokoh dalam riset keuangan berkat dukungan para ahli dan analis yang obyektif serta sinergi yang baik dengan grup BCA. Nikmati keuntungan dari pendekatan unik kami yang telah terbukti, dan buatlah prediksi yang lebih baik hari ini.

 

Riset Saham Harian

24 April 2019

BCAS Vista 24-Apr-19

INDUSTRY

Gov’t to review the tobacco excise tax increase possibility

Government is currently reviewing the possibility of increasing the tobacco excise tax this year, concurrent with the State Budget revision. The new excise tax implementation is expected to be in mid 2019,. (CNBC Indonesia)

 

MoF Ministry to approve BPJS Healthcare premium increase

MoF Ministry, Sri Mulyani, has confirmed to grant the approval to increase the JKN premium for the contribution assistance recipients (PBI) from the govt’, which is currently at IDR23,000/month. The Minister also stated that the number of recipients would also be increased to 100mn people from currently 96.5mn people. (Detik Finance)

 

US ended sanction exemptions for Iranian oil buyers

President Donald Trump’s administration announced Monday that buyers of Iranian oil must stop purchases by May 1 or face sanctions, sending the oil price to 6-month high. The 8 countries which received the exemptions were China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy and Greece. However, China and India will remain defiant against the United States. (Bisnis Indonesia, CNBC)

 

Jakarta gov’t changes the criteria of zero property tax receiver

DKI Jakarta provincial government plans to changes the criteria of zero property tax receiver. Previously, property owner with asset value under IDR1bn are exempted from property tax, however starting 2020, they are obliged to pay property tax if the asset is used for commercial purposes. However, government also plan to exclude property tax for teachers, retired teachers, and veterans. (Kontan)

 

 

COMPANY

AALI 1Q19 results

• AALI booked 1Q19 net profit of IDR37bn (-88.1% QoQ / -89.5% YoY); way below consensus’ expectation as a result of pressured CPO price.

• 1Q19 revenue reached IDR4.2tn (-20.5% QoQ / -4.8% YoY); in line with consensus’ expectation which we suspect due to higher sales volume.

• 1Q19 EBIT stood at IDR34bn (-93.9% QoQ / -92.8% YoY); below consensus’ target. EBIT margin is compressed to 0.8% in 1Q19, compared to 10.5% in 1Q18.

• Balance sheet wise, company booked 1Q19 net gearing position of 24.4%, higher than 1Q18 with 18.0%.

Source: Company, BCA Sekuritas

 

Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) to review Jiwasraya acquisition

CEO of BBTN, Maryono, stated that BBTN is currently studying the possibility of Jiwasraya acquisition. Note that previously mentioned, the subsidiary of Jiwasraya, Jiwasraya Putra, plans to use SOE synergies which will include BBTN, Pegadaian, Kereta Api Indonesia, and Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Telkom). (Kontan)

 

JSMR’s 1Q19 earnings is in line with ours and cons

• JSMR posted 1Q19 earnings of IDR585bn (+35.9% QoQ/ +0.3% YoY), accounting for 26.2% of BCAS, 29.3% of cons, which is in line with ours.

• JSMR 1Q19 revenue booked of IDR2.5tn ( -5.9% QoQ/+4.6% YoY). Higher toll road revenue was driven by newly toll road operations of several sections, including Solo – Ngawi; Ngawi – Kertosono – Kediri; and Cinere – Serpong

• EBIT stood at IDR1.4tn (9.9% QoQ/+11.4% YoY) in line with ours and cons. 1Q19 EBIT margin expanded from 47.6% in 1Q18 to 55.5%. 

• Balance sheet wise, 1Q19 net gearing declined to 94.2% from 133.6% in 4Q18.

Source: Company, BCA Sekuritas

 

PTBA booked net profit of IDR1.14tn in 1Q19 (+3.9% QoQ/ -21.6% YoY), below our estimates and cons

  • PTBA booked IDR1.14tn net profit in 1Q19 (-21.6% YoY), below our estimates (21.5%), and cons (20.4%).
  • On top line, PTBA booked revenue of IDR5.3tn in 1Q19 (-7.2% YoY) from IDR5.7tn in 1Q18, slightly below our forecast.
  • PTBA’s gross margin contracted to 33.3% in 1Q19 vs 44.9% in 1Q18 and 36.6% in 4Q18. 
  • More information to follow after 1Q19 analyst meeting this afternoon.
  • Our last TP was IDR4,250 with a HOLD rating.

Source: Company, BCA Sekuritas

 

Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI) posted NP of IDR65bn (-7.1% QoQ, +123.2% YoY) in 1Q19

• ROTI posted net profit of IDR65bn (-7.1% QoQ, +123.2% YoY) in 1Q19 – above, representing 31% of our and consensus estimates, supported by opex efficiencies (reduced expired/defective inventory, benign growth in salary). The Company was able to maintain its return rate to 13.5% in 1Q19 (4Q18: 13.6%), a significant improvement since 1Q18 return rate of 25.8%.

• 1Q19 revenue stood at IDR792bn (+1.3% QoQ, +20.1% YoY) – inline, representing 25% of our and cons., on the back of strong sales volume, as ROTI maintains its ASP in 1Q19. Slightly lower gross margin was most likely driven by ROTI’s strategy to boost its low-segment product (Boti).

• 1Q19 EBIT reached at IDR63bn (-3.4% QoQ, +281.5% YoY) – above. 1Q19 EBIT margin reached 8.0% vs. 4Q18: 8.4% and 1Q18: 2.5%.

• ROTI maintains its net cash position. Note that a bond will due in within this year and the Company may seek to issue another bond to support its operation.

Source: Company, BCA Sekuritas

 

MAP Aktif Adiperkasa (MAPA)’s public ownership reached 22.8%

Following the placement of shares in the negotiation market on 12-Apr-19, MAPA’s public ownership reached 22.8% from previously less than 5% (1.65% as of 31-Mar-19). Mitra Adi Perkasa’s (MAPI) Head of Corporate Communication stated that the crossing shares from CVC Capital Partners’ through its subsidiary, Montage Company Limited, has all been absorbed by the market. Thus currently, MAPI holds 69.8% ownership of MAPA while Montage still holds 7.3% ownership. (Kontan)

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Research bonds

24 April 2019

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BCAS Insight 24-Apr-2019

BERITA  

 

Market Summary

  • Bursa Asia Pasifik pagi ini dibuka dengan tren kenaikan (Topix +0,20%, Australia ASX +0,40%, Kospi +0,10%) yang dipicu oleh bagusnya laporan keuangan kuartal I 2019 emiten-emiten besar di bursa Wall Street. Penting dicatat bahwa sekitar 80% dari perusahaan yang termasuk di S&P 500 telah melaporakan kinerja keuangan yang melebihi ekspektasi analis.  
  • Yield UST Tenor 10Y stabil di level 2,57%.
  • Yen diperdagangkan di 111,85/US$, dan demikian pula Euro yang melemah di level US$1,1221/EUR.  
  • Minyak mentah WTI naik ke US$65,93/bbl di tengah sentiment positif pasar keuangan global merespon kinerja perusahaan besar yang lebih bagus dari perkiraan dan meredakan ekspektasi perlambatan ekonomi global.   
  • Rupiah ditutup stabil di level 14,080/US$ kemarin sore.
  • Imbal hasil dari FR0078, acuan SUN 10Y ditutup naik ke 7,631% kemarin.   

 

Econ News

  • Bank Indonesia menyatakan tingkat inflasi menjelang bulan puasa dan lebaran akan tetap terjaga, dimana hal ini didukung oleh pasokan dan ketersediaan barang menjelang lebaran yang terus terjaga. Sementara itu, berdasarkan survei hasil pemantauan harga minggu ketiga yang dilakukan oleh BI, tingkat inflasi April akan berkisar di level 0,31% month on month (mom) dan 2,70% year on year (yoy).

Comment: Dengan semakin terkendalinya pasokan harga pangan yang membuat inflasi akan tetap terkontrol, maka di tengah ekspektasi melandainya defisit neraca perdagangan, Bank Indonesia berpotensi untuk memindahkan tuas gigi kebijakan moneter menjadi lebih ekspansif di semester kedua tahun ini. 

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