US Federal Reserve Kept Policy Rate Unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%

US M2 Money Supply Reached Record High in Jun-26 
US M2 money supply increased to a record USD 23.16tn in Jun-26, up from USD 23.06tn in May-26, reflecting continued expansion in broad liquidity across the economy. The latest reading marks the highest level on record, exceeding the previous peak recorded in May-26. (Trading Economics)

US Federal Reserve Kept Policy Rate Unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%
The US Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% 3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting in Jul-26, in line with expectations. However, three FOMC members dissented in favor of a 25bps rate hike, signaling a higher probability of tightening at the Sep-26 meeting. The Fed noted the US economy continues expanding at a solid pace with resilient labor market conditions, while inflation remains above its 2% target, partly reflecting energy-related supply shocks. (Trading Economics)

Saudi Aramco Considering Review of Asia OSPs Amid Red Sea Shipping Disruptions
Saudi Aramco is considering revising its official selling prices (OSPs) for crude loaded at Sidi Kerir, Egypt for Asian buyers after Houthi attacks in the Red Sea disrupted shipments from Yanbu, forcing longer and costlier delivery routes via the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope. Asian refiners are seeking USD 4–10/bbl discounts to offset higher freight costs, while pricing discussions remain ongoing ahead of Aramco's official OSP announcement next month. (Bloomberg)

US Crude Inventories Fell More Than Expected in Latest EIA Report
US commercial crude inventories declined 7.17m bbl to 404.5m bbl in the week ended 24-Jul, significantly exceeding market expectations for a 1.3m bbl draw, while Cushing inventories fell 771kbbl. Refinery utilization rose 1.1ppt to 97.2% as refinery throughput increased 271kbpd, while gasoline inventories increased 7kbbl, distillate stocks rose 1.06m bbl, and net US crude imports declined 237kbpd. (Trading Economics)

BCAS: INCO IJ – 6M26 results – In line with ours and below street estimates
- 6M26 earnings grew by 272% YoY to USD 104mn, Forming 60/39% of our forecast and consensus, respectively. 2Q26 earnings increased by 39/871% QoQ/YoY to USD 61mn. 
- 6M26 EBIT grew by 826% YoY to USD 136mn. 2Q26 EBIT increased by 83/2813% QoQ/YoY to USD 88mn. 
- 6M26 Revenue grew by 27% YoY to USD 543mn. 2Q26 Revenue increased by 15/32% QoQ/YoY to USD 290mn. Forming 39/38% of our forecast and consensus, respectively. Most of the growth comes from nickel ore sales which able to offset weak nickel mate sales.

BCAS: AALI IJ 6M26 results – Above ours and street estimates
-6M26 earnings grew by 56% YoY to IDR 1,099bn, Forming 77/67% of our forecast and consensus, respectively. 2Q26 earnings increased by 94/71% QoQ/YoY to IDR 725bn. -6M26 EBIT grew by 52% YoY to IDR 1,572bn. 2Q26 EBIT increased by 17/52% QoQ/YoY to IDR 847bn. 
-6M26 Revenue grew by 6% YoY to IDR 15,259bn. 2Q26 Revenue increased by 3.4/4.5% QoQ/YoY to IDR 7,757bn. Forming 44/53% of our forecast and consensus, respectively. We will revised up our forecast and TP

BCAS : UNTR IJ : 6M26 Operational Update
UNTR's 6M26 operational performance remained soft across most business segments. Details are as follows: 
-Komatsu Sales: In Jun-26, Komatsu sales increased to 304 units (+9.7% MoM; –19.8% YoY), reflecting a modest recovery in equipment deliveries. Cumulatively, 6M26 sales reached 1,994 units (–26.9% YoY), representing 50.8% of our FY26 estimate. 
-Mining Contracting: Overburden removal reached 80.8 Mbcm (+1.9% MoM; –17.2% YoY) in Jun-26, indicating stable stripping activity sequentially despite weaker mining demand. Cumulative 6M26 volume stood at 480.5 Mbcm (–9.8% YoY), equivalent to 48.5% of our FY26 forecast. 
-Coal Sales: Thermal coal sales recovered to 0.8 Mt (+62.0% MoM; –11.5% YoY) in Jun-26, while coking coal increased to 0.2 Mt (+31.4% MoM; –28.2% YoY). Cumulatively, 6M26 thermal coal sales remained broadly stable at 5.7 Mt (–0.6% YoY; 51.0% of target), whereas coking coal reached 1.6 Mt (–25.2% YoY; 41.0% of target), reflecting continued weakness in metallurgical coal demand. 
-Gold Sales: Gold sales rose to 10.0 Koz (+25.0% MoM; –57.4% YoY) in Jun-26, reflecting a gradual improvement in shipments. However, cumulative 6M26 sales remained weak at 24.0 Koz (–80.7% YoY), representing only 20.2% of our FY26 estimate. 
-Nickel Sales: Saprolite ore sales declined to 11.0 Kwmt (–52.2% MoM; –84.1% YoY) in Jun-26, bringing 6M26 volume to 260.0 Kwmt (–27.8% YoY; 37.1% of target). Meanwhile, limonite ore sales were broadly stable at 78.0 Kwmt (+1.3% MoM; –40.0% YoY), with cumulative 6M26 volume reaching 626.0 Kwmt (–13.9% YoY; 48.2% of target), reflecting softer nickel shipments amid subdued demand.