The Fed Held Rates, Signals No September Cut Yet

RESEARCH REPORT
DSNG – The High Ground
• Share price an action star – but with more legs to go
• Tweaking our 2025-2026F
(Please refer to our report here)

 

MACROECONOMY
The Fed Held Rates, Signals No September Cut Yet
The Fed kept rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%, with Chair Jerome Powell stressing caution amid inflation risks tied to tariffs. He said more data is needed before any rate cuts, lowering market expectations for a September move. Two Fed gov. dissented in favor of a cut, marking a rare split. Despite pressure from President Trump, Powell emphasized the Fed's focus on controlling inflation over political concerns. (Reuters)

 

COMPANY
BCAS: BBCA IJ - 2Q25 Earnings in Line

- BBCA 2Q25 net profit reached IDR 14.9tn (+5.1% QoQ; +6.2% YoY), bringing 1H25 net profit to IDR 29.0tn (+8.0% YoY), in line cons numbers at 49.8%.
- Net interest income came in at IDR 21.5tn (+1.7% QoQ; +6.9% YoY), totaling IDR 42.6tn in 1H25 (+6.8% YoY), supported by stable NIM at 5.8% (vs 5.8% in 1Q25 and 5.7% in 2Q24).
- Operating income rose to IDR 28.4tn in 2Q25 (+1.7% QoQ; +8.8% YoY), bringing 1H25 operating income to IDR 56.4tn (+7.7% YoY), in line with street’s expectation at 48.8%.
- PPOP improved to IDR 19.3tn in 2Q25 (+4.5% QoQ; +9.1% YoY), with 1H25 PPOP at IDR 37.8tn (+9.2% YoY).
- LDR stood at 78.0% (vs Jun-24: 72.7%; Mar-25: 76.1%), while gross NPL remained at 2.2% (vs Mar-25: 2.0%; Jun-24: 2.2%). CAR reached 28.4% (vs Mar-25: 26.6%; Jun-24: 27.8%)
- The Co. raised its CoC guidance to 30–50bps (from 30bps) while maintaining CIR guidance at 33–34%. It expects a stronger 2H25, driven by fiscal spending, potential BI rate cuts, and seasonal improvements in CASA and loan growth.