MACROECONOMY

Indonesia Trade Surplus Narrowed to USD 2.66 bn in Nov-25
Indonesia’s trade surplus narrowed sharply to USD 2.66 bn in Nov-25 (vs Nov-24; USD 4.34 bn), below market expectations of USD 3.1 bn, as exports contracted while imports rebounded. Exports fell 6.6% YoY to USD 22.52 bn, the steepest decline since Feb-24, driven by a sharp drop in oil & gas exports (–32.9%) and weaker non–oil & gas shipments (–5.1%), particularly to China (–7.35%) and Japan (–12.34%), although exports to the U.S. accelerated (+9.45%). Meanwhile, imports rose 0.46% YoY, recovering from Oct-25 contraction, while cumulatively Indonesia booked a USD 38.54 bn surplus in 11M25, with exports and imports up 5.61% and 2.03% YoY, respectively. (Trading Economics)

Indonesia Inflation Rose to 2.92% in Dec-25
Indonesia’s annual inflation climbed to 2.92% in Dec-25 (vs Nov-25; 2.72%), the highest since Apr-24 but still within Bank Indonesia’s 1.5 3.5% target range. The uptick was driven by faster food inflation (4.58% vs 4.25%), alongside firmer housing (1.62%), transport (1.23%), and recreation (1.17%) costs, while inflation eased across clothing, health, education, and accommodation. Core inflation edged up to 2.38%, the highest since May, reflecting gradually firming underlying demand, while on a monthly basis CPI jumped 0.64%, the strongest increase in eight months. (Trading Economics)

INDUSTRY

Indonesia Palm Oil Export Volume Rose 4.3% YoY
Indonesia’s palm oil export volume increased 4.3% YoY to 20.85 mn tons in Jan–Nov, with total shipment value reaching USD 21.63 bn, based on statistics bureau data. In Nov alone, export volume fell sharply to 1.36 mn tons, down nearly 29% YoY, reflecting softer monthly shipments. The data exclude palm kernel oil, oleochemicals, and biodiesel, while GAPKI figures typically differ due to broader product coverage. (Kontan)

COMPANY

BCAS: ERAA IJ and ERAL IJ - SSSG Accelerated on Strong iPhone 17 Demand in Nov-25
- ERAA recorded strong SSSG of +41.2% YoY in Nov-25 (vs Oct-25: +30.5%), lifting 11M25 SSSG to +4.5% YoY (vs 10M25: +1.2%). Meanwhile, ERAL posted SSSG of +22.7% YoY in Nov-25 (vs Oct-25: +19.2%), bringing 11M25 SSSG to +15.1% YoY (vs 10M25: +14.3%).
- The solid Nov-25 performance across ERAA and ERAL was driven by robust iPhone 17 sales momentum, which is expected to extend into Dec-25. On expansion, the Erajaya Group added 35 net new stores in Nov-25, comprising 24 stores by ERAA and 5 stores by ERAL, bringing total group store count to 2,265 outlets as of Nov-25.

BCAS: UNTR IJ - 11M25 Operational Update
UNTR’s 11M25 operational performance remained relatively weak across all segments. The details are as follows:
• Komatsu Sales: In Nov-25, Komatsu sales softened to 306 units (–11.6% MoM, –24.1% YoY), reflecting seasonal normalization and cautious capex spending. Nevertheless, cumulative 11M25 volumes reached 4,305 units (+3.3% YoY), equivalent to 93.6% of our full-year estimate, indicating broadly in-line performance supported by resilient replacement demand.
• Mining Contracting: OB removal declined slightly to 94.9 mbcm in Nov-25 (–3.9% MoM, –5.9% YoY), bringing 11M25 volumes to 1,021.0 mbcm (–9.5% YoY), or 93.2% of our forecast. The underperformance continued to reflect earlier heavy rainfall and coal producers’ conservative production plans amid softer coal prices.
• Coal Sales: Thermal coal sales edged up to 0.7 mn tons in Nov-25 (+4.3% MoM, –8.9% YoY), lifting 11M25 volumes to 9.8 mn tons (+8.0% YoY; 92.1% of target). Coking coal volumes dropped to 0.3 mn tons (–38.2% MoM, –41.1% YoY), however 11M25 sales reached 3.6 mn tons (+13.5% YoY), exceeding expectations at 104.4% of forecast. Overall coal sales remained broadly in line, with strong YTD coking coal offsetting monthly volatility.
• Nickel Sales: Saprolite ore sales moderated to 79.0 Kwmt in Nov-25 (–8.1% MoM, +83.7% YoY), bringing 11M25 volumes to 690.0 Kwmt (+1.2% YoY), broadly in line at 98.6% of target. Limonite ore sales declined to 94.0 Kwmt (–31.9% MoM, –51.3% YoY) due to shipment timing, yet cumulative 11M25 volumes rose to 1,350.0 Kwmt (+19.2% YoY), exceeding expectations at 103.8% of forecast.
• Gold Sales: Gold sales were stable at 19.0 Koz in Nov-25 (flat MoM, –13.6% YoY), lifting 11M25 volumes to 216.0 Koz (+2.9% YoY), equivalent to 88.5% of target. Performance remained steady, with YoY comparison affected by a high base in Nov-24.

United Tractors (UNTR) Executed Affiliated Capital Increase at Uway Energi Perdana (UEP)
UNTR disclosed that its indirect subsidiary, UEP, completed a capital increase through the issuance of 54,288 new Series A shares, fully subscribed by EPN, effective 31-Dec-25. Post-transaction, EPN holds 54,288 Series A shares valued at IDR 54.29 bn in UEP, aimed at maintaining group ownership structure. The transaction is classified as an affiliated transaction under POJK 42/2020 and has received approval from the Ministry of Law and Human Rights. (Company)

Bank BTN (BBTN) Completed IDR 5.56 tn Sharia Unit Spin-off Transaction
BBTN completed an IDR 5.56 tn transaction through the transfer of rights and obligations of its Sharia Business Unit (UUS) to Bank Syariah Nasional (BSN), finalized on 22-Dec-25, following RUPSLB approval and OJK consent. The transaction fulfills mandatory UUS spin-off requirements under prevailing sharia banking regulations and is part of BTN’s earlier acquisition of BSN, aimed at sharpening sharia business focus and accelerating decision-making efficiency. Post spin-off, BTN expects no adverse financial impact, with CAR and CET-1 ratios maintained within risk appetite and the bank’s health rating projected to remain at level 2 (healthy). (Emitennews)

Central Omega Resources (DKFT) Secured IDR 245 bn Credit Facility
DKFT disclosed a material transaction involving a IDR 245 bn demand loan facility obtained by its subsidiary, PT Mega Buana Resources, from Bank China Construction Bank Indonesia, with DKFT acting as guarantor via time deposit collateral. The transaction represents 24.9% of DKFT’s equity, classifying it as a material transaction under POJK 17/2020, but not a conflict-of interest transaction, while also deemed an affiliated transaction given DKFT’s 99.96% ownership in MBR. The facility, signed on 30-Dec-25, has a three-month tenor, 0.5% p.a. spread, and will be used for general corporate purposes. (Company)

Aracord Nusantara (RONY) Targets Turnaround with 100 EV Truck Expansion RONY reported a net loss of around IDR 4 bn as of 9M25, driven by post-acquisition restructuring and business transformation during 2025. Management expects performance to recover in 2026, supported by secured contracts and a strategic pivot into EV based mining logistics and clean-energy solutions. The co. plans to add up to 100 electric trucks through its subsidiary to capture growing demand for diesel-to-EV conversion in the mining sector. (Emitennews)

Kimia Farma (KAEF) Secured IDR 846 bn Shareholder Loan from Bio Farma
KAEF secured an IDR 846 bn shareholder loan from Bio Farma, signed on 31-Dec-25, to support short-term liquidity through working capital funding, operational obligation settlement, and core business continuity. The facility is backed by collateral of up to IDR 775.2 bn, equivalent to 120% of IDR 646 bn, comprising land, buildings, receivables, and inventories, amid tight liquidity and higher borrowing costs. Management expects the loan to strengthen working capital resilience and support ongoing transformation across six strategic pillars, including efficiency, digitalization, GCG, and intra-group synergy. (Emitennews)

Harta Djaya (MEJA) Entered Mining Sector via Trimata Coal Acquisition
MEJA signed a conditional agreement to acquire 45% of PT Trimata Coal Perkasa for IDR 1.6 tn as part of its business diversification into coal mining. The transaction, agreed on 22-Dec-25, will be executed in stages and is expected to make MEJA the controlling shareholder, with no affiliation between the parties. Trimata owns a coal concession of c.11,640 ha in South Sumatra with estimated mineable resources of 693.7 mn tons and approved RKAB production of 2.6 mn tons for 2024 2026. (Kontan)

Research 1

aaaa

Bank Tabungan Negara

23 April 2025 - 04.41pm

aaaa

BBRI

HANS

PSAB

ARKA

TEST

bonds

Fixed Income Daily Notes 6 January 2026

stocks

Indonesia Inflation Rose to 2.92% in Dec-25

stocks

Indonesia Withdrew IDR 75 tn Govt. Funds From Banks for Routine Spending