Indonesia's Trade Surplus Narrowed to USD 4.33 Bn in Mar-25

Indonesia's Trade Surplus Narrowed to USD 4.33 Bn in Mar-25

Indonesia's trade surplus declined to USD 4.33 bn in Mar-25 (Mar-24: USD 4.58 bn), beating the USD 2.64 bn forecast. Exports grew by +3.16% YoY, marking the twelfth straight month of growth, though it was the slowest pace since Jun-24. Non-oil and gas exports increased by +2.56% YoY (Feb-25: +15.40%). Imports rose by +5.34% YoY, below the expected +6.6% increase. (Trading Economics)

US Imposed New Import Tariffs on Solar Panels from Southeast Asia 
The US finalized new import duties on solar equipment from Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia—countries supplying the majority of its solar panels. The Department of Commerce determined final dumping margins of 125.37% (Cambodia), 271.28% (Vietnam), 111.45% (Thailand), and 8.59% (Malaysia). These duties aim to counteract alleged price undercutting and subsidies. (Bloomberg Technoz)

INDUSTRY
BCAS Weekly Coal Update: Agg. China imports down in March by 6% YoY, Indonesia export hit the most due to HBA implementation 
Highlights of the week: 
- China March coal imports down by 6% YoY in aggregate owing to high port inventories and weak domestic demand which pushed spot price to four years lows. As we are in the seasonal low demand, and high inventory situation post soft demand in the last winter, some players tries to bring inventories down. 
- Indonesia HBA coal implementation as an export price benchmark starting to take a toll, Chinese purchase remain limited. For now only low rank coal that remain competitive. 
- China March coal imports: from Russia +6% YoY to 7.3Mt, Australia +14% to 4.4Mt, Mongolia +5% to 6.8Mt, and Indonesia -9% to 17.9Mt. 
- China 3M25 coal imports: from Russia +9% YoY to 19.9Mt, Australia +4% YoY to 16.4Mt, Mongolia +5% YoY to 17.5Mt, and Indonesia +1% YoY to 52.6Mt 
- Rystad Energy: Expect coal price to remain sideways for a while, as global trade disruption still play out. Meanwhile we might see coal producers at the top end of the cost curve are facing a dilemma to shut down their production if coal price remain trade below USD100/t for a long period of time. So far Glencore will begin to reduce its Colombian coal operation (Carrejon) by 5-10Mt.

COMPANY 
BCAS: ACES IJ - 3M25 SSSG Rebounded 

- ACES SSSG for Mar-25 came in at 8.6%, a rebound from weak Feb-25, driven by festive preparations and THR disbursement, boosting purchasing power esp. in the 2nd half of the month. 3M25 SSSG came in at 2.2%, exceeding Co's FY guidance of ≥1% . 
- Mar-25 gross sales came in at IDR823bn (+37.4% MoM, +15.9% YoY), while 3M25 indicative sales came in at IDR2,150bn (+12.1% YoY). 
- The current run-rate for 1Q25 is way above the Co's guidance of ≥5% sales growth. However, the Co. anticipates correction in the coming months given current weak purchasing power.