Indonesia’s 4Q25 GDP Expected to Grow 5.6%

MACROECONOMY 
China Industrial Profits Rose 1.9% YoY in 10M25 
China’s industrial profits grew 1.9% YoY to CNY 5.95 tn in 10M25 (vs 9M25; +3.2%), reflecting softer demand and persistent pricing pressure. Profit growth was recorded in non-ferrous smelting (+14.0%), electricity & heat (+13.1%), computers & communications (+12.8%), agriculture (+8.5%), electrical machinery (+7.0%), general manufacturing (+6.2%), special equipment (+5.0%), and autos (+4.4%). Declines occurred in coal mining (-49.2%), oil & gas (-12.5%), textiles (- 6.1%), and chemicals (-5.4%). In Oct-25, industrial profits fell 5.5% YoY, reversing a 21.6% gain in Sep-25 and marking the first decline in three months. (Trading Economics) 

Indonesia’s 4Q25 GDP Expected to Grow 5.6% 
Indonesia projected 4Q25 GDP growth in the 5.4%–5.6% range, supported by year-end spending momentum and govt. stimulus ahead of the Nataru holidays. The acceleration is backed by strong social assistance programs, 90% budget absorption across ministries, transport and toll-road discounts, tourism events driving ~100 mn domestic movements and 1.3 mn foreign arrivals, and national shopping campaigns, while housing incentives, FLPP programs, KUR Perumahan, and updated OSS regulations aim to strengthen investment and sustain growth into 2026. (Kontan)
 

INDUSTRY 
OPEC+ Expected to Maintain Oil Output Policy for 1Q26 
OPEC+ is expected to keep its current oil production policy at the 30-Nov meeting, with eight members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—set to pause further output hikes in 1Q26 after raising a collective 2.9 Mmbpd from April– Dec-25. The group will also finalize a long-discussed mechanism to assess members’ maximum production capacity, which will serve as the baseline for 2027 targets, while broader 2026 quotas are expected to remain unchanged, including the 2 Mmbpd supply cut extending through next year. (Reuters) 

Indonesia Finalized Ongoing Review of Gold DMO Framework Ahead of 2026 Export Duty 
Indonesia continues evaluating the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) framework for gold as the 15% export duty is set to begin in 2026. The ESDM Ministry confirmed that DMO pricing will reference the government-issued Harga Mineral Acuan (HMA) while also assessing the potential inclusion of silver as a by-product under the scheme. The policy discussion gains momentum amid rising domestic demand and recent supply disruption at Freeport’s Grasberg Block Cave, with national production still concentrated in Freeport (50– 60 tons/year) and Amman Mineral (18–20 tons/year), forming the basis for designing a supply-guarantee mechanism without hindering mining operations. (Kontan