Indonesia Posted 0.09% YoY Deflation in Feb-25

Indonesia Posted 0.09% YoY Deflation in Feb-25

Indonesia's CPI fell 0.09% YoY in Feb-25, missing the forecasted 0.41% rise and reversing Jan-25's 0.76% gain. This marked the first deflation since Mar-00, driven by a 12.08% drop in housing prices due to a 50% electricity discount. Inflation slowed for food (2.25% vs 3.69% in Jan-25) and health (1.79% vs 1.84%), while accommodation remained steady (2.47%). Core inflation hit a 20-month high at 2.48% (vs 2.45% forecast). MoM, CPI fell 0.48%, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. (Trading Economics)

RESEARCH REPORT

EXCL – More Achievements to Unlock

• Strategies to deliver long-term returns
• Not-so-strong 4Q24
• First Media consolidation
• Seize the pre-and-post merger opportunity
• Maintain Buy with target price of IDR 2,800
  (Please refer to our report here)

 

COMPANY

BCAS: JSMR IJ - FY24 Earnings Above Ours and Cons

- JSMR recorded 4Q24 strong toll operation revenue of IDR4.9trn (+2.7% QoQ, +6.8% YoY), bringing the FY24 numbers to IDR18.7trn (+20.3% YoY) – in-line with ours and consensus estimate at 100% and 97%. Construction revenue also accelerated to IDR3.5trn (+36% QoQ, +29.5% YoY), with the total capex realization of IDR10trn in FY24 for 3 major tollroads: Probolinggo-Banyuwangi, Japek South, and Jogja-Bawen. Toll margin expanded to 65% in 4Q24 due to negative land and building tax, which also strengthen the FY24 toll operation GPM to 60% (FY23: 57%).
- 4Q24 core EBITDA rose to IDR3.8trn (+12.8% QoQ, +18.2% YoY), with the total FY24 core EBITDA achievement of IDR13trn (+27.6% YoY), above both ours and consensus estimate at 104% and 109%. Core EBITDA margin widen to 69.3% (FY23: 65.4%), supported by GPM expansion which negate the impact of higher G&A cost of IDR2.3trn (+15.1% YoY).
- Financing cost in 4Q24 was down to IDR914bn (-13.4% QoQ, -20.9% YoY), which we believe driven by deleveraging post JTT transaction. By Dec-24, company reduced its total debt to IDR59.6trn (Sep-24: IDR71.6trn), with lower net gearing ratio of 0.95x. In our view, company might be able to maintain its debt level, if capex spending to be maintained at IDR6-8trn. We have a BUY call in JSMR with TP at IDR5,700