China’s Inflation Eased to 0.5% YoY in Jul-26
China’s annual inflation eased to 0.5% YoY in Jul-26 from 1.0% in Jun-26, below the 0.8% market forecast and marking the lowest level since Jan-26. The moderation was mainly driven by softer non-food inflation at 0.9% and continued declines in food prices at 1.5%, while core inflation eased to 0.9% YoY from 1.0%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.1% following a 0.3% decline in Jun-26. (Trading Economics)

Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Fell to 116.8 in Jul-26
Indonesia’s consumer confidence index fell for the third consecutive month to 116.8 in Jul-26 from 117.8 in Jun-26, the lowest level since Apr-25. The decline was mainly driven by weaker assessments of current economic conditions, durable goods purchases, and job availability, while expectations for future income remained steady at 133.6. Despite the moderation, the index remained in optimistic territory. (Trading Economics)

U.S.-Iran Hormuz Negotiations Stalled as Positions Harden
U.S.-Iran negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz have stalled as both sides harden their positions. President Donald Trump said Washington is only “semi-negotiating” with Tehran and will use its naval blockade to pressure Iran rather than launch another wave of airstrikes. Iran said the U.S. must lift the blockade before it will fully reopen the strait. Tehran is separately negotiating with Oman over shipping routes. A June agreement to restore commercial traffic collapsed after disputes over vessel routes and renewed tanker attacks. (CNBC)

Govt. Disbursed IDR 16.05 tn in Village Funds as of Jun-26
The govt. disbursed IDR 16.05 tn in regular Village Funds as of Jun-26, equivalent to 64.26% of the IDR 25 tn 2026 budget allocation. The funds were distributed to 75,260 villages through two phases, with IDR 11.36 tn disbursed in the first phase and IDR 4.69 tn in the second phase. The govt. also allocated Village Funds for the Koperasi Desa Merah Putih (KDMP) program under PMK No. 7/2026. (Bloomberg Technoz)

Destry Damayanti Nominated as Sole Candidate for BI Governor
President Prabowo Subianto formally submitted Destry Damayanti as the sole candidate for Bank Indonesia Governor to replace Perry Warjiyo. Destry, who currently serves as Senior Deputy Governor and Acting BI Governor, will undergo the fit and proper test process at the DPR. The DPR is expected to announce the candidate before proceeding with the selection process. (Bloomberg Technoz)

INDUSTRY

Indonesia’s Crude Price (ICP) Fell to USD 81.68/bbl in Jul-26
Indonesia’s Crude Price fell USD 1.77 MoM to USD 81.68/bbl in Jul-26, reflecting easing Middle East tensions and improving global oil supply. The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry reported improved shipping through the Strait of Hormuz also supported the recovery in global supply. (Emitennews)

The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) to Develop Istiqlal Mosque Waqf Management Through Capital Market
IDX stated that managing waqf funds from Istiqlal Mosque through the capital market is part of developing Islamic philanthropy. The funds may be managed by investment managers through various instruments, including stocks and mutual funds, while the Financial Services Authority (OJK) is still reviewing the proposed scheme, particularly regarding the management of public funds. OJK emphasized that any investment activity involving public funds must prioritize transparency, sound management, and investor protection. (Bloomberg Technoz)

BCAS: ITMG IJ – 6M26 results – In line with ours but above street estimates
- 6M26 earnings grew by 16.5% YoY to USD 106mn. Forming 35.5/49.4% of our forecast and consensus, respectively. We deemed the result as inline since ITMG 1H achievement usually between 25-61%, and we are in the view of stronger coal price in 2H26. 2Q26 earnings changed by -6.1/+97.3% QoQ/YoY to USD 51mn.
- 6M26 EBIT grew by 13.9% YoY to USD 142mn. Forming 34.8/52.5% of our forecast and consensus, respectively. 2Q26 EBIT changed by -13.5/+49.1% QoQ/YoY to USD 66mn.
- 6M26 revenue increased by 8.8% YoY to USD 1bn. Forming 50.1/54.6% of our forecast and consensus, respectively. ITMG 1H revenue achievement typically in the range of 33-55%. 2Q26 Revenue increased by 1.1/15.1% QoQ/YoY to USD 503mn.
- Since ICI 2-4 appear very strong QTD in 3Q26 and no sign of taper off yet due to strong demand in coal we think ITMG revenue and earnings trajectory will be positive in the upcoming quarter. Operationally production and sales level already achieving 56/58% of our target.
Maintain BUY with TP of IDR 33,500/sh

XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera (EXCL) Disbursed IDR 3.07 bn for Bond and Sukuk Payments
EXCL allocated IDR 3.07 bn to pay the 30th period coupon and ijarah fee for its debt instruments on 10 Aug-26. The distribution comprised IDR 2.4 bn for its Shelf-Registered Bonds I Phase II Year 2019 Series D and IDR 672.1 mn for its Shelf-Registered Sukuk Ijarah II Phase II Year 2019 Series E. Both instruments carried an annual rate of 10.34%. This rate includes a 0.34% p.a. pro-rata premium triggered by a rating downgrade from Fitch Ratings Indonesia, as agreed upon during the Apr-25 general meeting of bondholders. (Emitennews)

Darma Henwa (DEWA) Received Waiver for Breached Loan Covenants
DEWA received a waiver from BBCA and BMRI for breaching the modified current ratio covenant under its IDR 5 tn syndicated loan facility. The waiver was approved on 30 Jul-26 after DEWA submitted the request on 22 Jun-26, with the facility comprising three tranches for working capital, refinancing, and mining equipment purchases. DEWA recorded a modified current ratio of 0.71x as of Jun-26, below the required minimum of 1x, while net profit rose 89% YoY to IDR 354.28 bn in 1H26. (Bloomberg Technoz)

Bumi Resources (BUMI) Advanced Coal-to-Methanol Project in East Kalimantan
BUMI, through PT Bumi Etam Chemical (BEC), advanced the development of a 2 mn tons per year coal-to-methanol project in Kutai Timur, East Kalimantan. BEC, PT Istana Karang Laut, and China National Chemical Engineering Co., Ltd. signed the Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) and Engineering, Procurement, Construction, and Commissioning Framework Agreement for the project. The facility will be developed at Bengalon Coal Industrial Park and is expected to convert coal into methanol for use in petrochemical, manufacturing, energy, and other downstream industries. (Emitennews)

Fixed Income Daily Notes 29 January 2026

Fixed Income Daily Notes 29 January 2026

Fixed Income

29 January 2026 - 08.37am

Fixed Income Daily Notes 29 January 2026

stocks

Indonesia Retail Sales Declined 3.0% YoY in Jun-26

bonds

Fixed Income Daily Notes 12 Aug 2026

bonds

Fixed Income Daily Notes 11 Aug 2026