China Retail Sales Growth Slowed to 0.2% YoY in Apr-26

China Retail Sales Growth Slowed to 0.2% YoY in Apr-26

China’s retail sales increased only 0.2% YoY in Apr-26, sharply slowing from 1.7% growth in Mar-26 and missing market expectation of 2.0%, marking the weakest growth since Dec-22. Consumer demand was pressured by geopolitical uncertainty linked to the Iran war, with major declines seen in automobile sales (-15.3%), home appliances (-15.1%), building materials (-13.8%), and furniture (-10.4%). On monthly basis, retail sales fell 0.5%, while retail sales excluding automobiles still rose 1.8%. (Trading Economics)

BCAS: ERAL IJ – Divests 90.1% Stake in XPENG Manufacturing Unit (EIDO)

PT Sinar Eka Selaras (ERAL) on 13 May 2026 divested 90.1% of its stake in PT Era Industri Otomotif (EIDO), the sole XPENG vehicle assembly and manufacturing entity outside China, to XPENG International Holding (Hong Kong) Limited, reducing ERAL's ownership from 99.99% to 9.9%.

Post transaction:
- FY26F revenue revised down from IDR 8.4tn to IDR6.6tn (-21.5%), while net profit only declined from IDR 287bn to IDR 250bn (-12.9%), implying automotive manufacturing contributed minimal earnings and was likely still loss making.
- GPM +90bps (18.2% to 19.1%)
- OPM +20bps (4.6% to 4.8%)
- NPM +40bps (3.4% to 3.8%)
- D/E improves from 0.32x to ~0.25x, following deconsolidation of IDR 175bn ST bank loans and IDR209 bn automotive inventory.

Importantly, ERAL still retains XPENG distribution and dealership operations (EIVO/EDOO), preserving exposure to XPENG sales in Indonesia while removing manufacturing capex and assembly risk, shifting ERAL toward a more asset light earnings profile.

We revise our FY26F estimates to reflect the deconsolidation of EIDO, with EPS moving to IDR48.3/share on a maintained 8.7x PE, implying a fair value of IDR420 (from IDR 480).

We have not incorporated any disposal gain into our estimates pending disclosure of the transaction value. Should XPENG acquire EIDO above book value, which is strategically justifiable given its status as the first and only XPENG SKD facility outside China, ERAL could book an estimated ~IDR77 bn one off gain at 1.5x book value, equivalent to ~31% of revised FY26F net profit estimate, presenting upside risk to current estimates through 2Q26 earnings.