China Jul-25 Auto Sales Maintain Strong Growth, NEVs Near Half of Market

 

 

MACROECONOMY 
China Jul-25 Auto Sales Maintain Strong Growth, NEVs Near Half of Market 

China’s vehicle sales rose 14.7% YoY in July 2025 to 2.593 mn units, with NEV sales up 27.4% to 1.262 mn, making up 48.7% of the market. Jan–Jul sales climbed 12% overall, while NEVs surged 38.5% to 8.22 mn (45% share). On a MoM basis, total sales fell 10.7% after June’s 8.1% gain. CAAM projects 2025 sales up 4.7% to 32.9 mn units, with NEVs up 24.4% to 16 mn. (Trading Economics) 

China Jul-25 Inflation Steady, Core CPI at 17-Month High 

China’s CPI was unchanged YoY in Jul-25 (vs -0.1% forecast), after a 0.1% rise in Jun-25. Non-food prices grew 0.3%, supported by housing, clothing, healthcare, and education, while food prices fell 1.6% amid a high base. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.8% YoY, the fastest since March 2024. MoM, CPI increased 0.4%—the highest since January—rebounding from a 0.1% drop in Jun-25, partly due to extreme weather. (Trading Economics) 

Indonesia Jun-25 Retail Sales Growth Slows 

Indonesia’s retail sales rose 1.3% YoY in Jun-25, easing from 1.9% in May-25, with slower gains in food, beverages, tobacco, and recreational goods, and declines in auto parts, fuel, appliances, and ICT equipment. Clothing sales rebounded 1.4%, the first increase in three months. MoM, sales slipped 0.2%, the mildest drop in three months, supported by holiday spending and government cash handouts ahead of the school year. (Trading Economics)

INDUSTRY 
Indonesia To Allocate IDR 43 Tn to Renovate 2 Mn Homes 
Indonesia’s Ministry of Housing will allocate IDR 43 tn in 2025 to renovate 2 mn homes under the BSPS program, part of President Prabowo’s 3 mn Homes plan. The program targets rural households needing upgrades, alongside building 1 mn new homes with private partners and developing coastal and vertical housing. (Kontan)

COMPANY 
BCAS: 7M25 - 4W & 2W Sales 

- Astra recorded sales of 31,772 units in July 2025 (-27.4% yoy and +8.2% mom). Astra's sales declined more sharply year-on-year compared to its peers, with the industry average being -18.4% yoy and +4.8% mom. Astra's market share increased to 52.5% in July 2025 (compared to 50.8% in June 2025). 
- Wuling and Hyundai showed the largest MoM increases of 91% and 27%, respectively; while Chery and BYD+Denza experienced declines. We believe this non-Astra mixed performance is primarily due to differences in import timing, production, and inventory strategies of each brand. 
- Well-received by the Indonesian market, the top 3 Chinese brands accumulated a 10.1% market share in 7M25. Despite slowing 4W vehicle sales, Chery and BYD+Denza sales showed strong yoy growth. 
- 7M25 fell 10% yoy, accounting for 48-58% of Gaikindo's target of 750-900k sales in 2025. Historically, 4W sales in the second half are stronger than the first half. We expect 4W sales to recover to the 65-70k/month in the coming months