Dairy Processing Industry (IPS) Under Pressure from Rising Raw Material & Packaging Costs
Indonesia's dairy processing industry (IPS) is facing mounting cost pressures amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, with raw material prices rising 17%-34% and imported packaging costs up ~20%, compounded by rupiah depreciation. The Executive Director of AIPS noted that producers are being forced to adjust selling prices in 2Q26. On the demand side, consumer purchasing power remains weak, though the govt's free nutritious meal program (MBG) provided some support, with IPS sales growing 10% 20% in 1Q26 YoY depending on the company. Structurally, domestic fresh milk production stands at ~800k tons/year, covering only ~18% of industry needs, leaving 82% dependent on imports, making the sector highly vulnerable to FX volatility. (Kontan)

BCAS: AKRA IJ - 1Q26 – Strong Top-line Growth Offset by Margin Pressure, Slightly Below Ours and Cons
- In 1Q26, AKRA posted revenue of IDR 12.9 tn (–5.0% QoQ; +26.2% YoY), driven by stronger trading and distribution performance, broadly in line with our estimate (26.3%) and slightly above consensus (27.8%), indicating solid early-year top-line execution.
- Operationally, profitability softened QoQ, with gross profit at IDR 1.1 tn (–17.0% QoQ; +19.3% YoY) and EBIT at IDR 811 bn (–19.8% QoQ; +19.7% YoY), reflecting higher handling and packaging costs in trading and distribution, reducing TnD margin to 7.0% (vs 7.8% in 1Q25). Gross margin declined to 8.5% (–1.2ppt QoQ), while EBIT margin fell to 6.3% (–1.2ppt QoQ). 3M26 EBIT came in below our estimate (20.9%) and consensus (23.7%), indicating weaker-than-expected margin delivery.
- At the bottom line, 1Q26 net profit reached IDR 656 bn (–20.2% QoQ; +16.1% YoY), pressured by lower operating profit and softer other income, slightly below our estimate (22.8%) and broadly in line with consensus (24.2%), suggesting margin-led earnings drag despite solid revenue growth.

BCAS: PGAS IJ - 1Q26 – Margin Improvement with Earnings Boost from Lower Forex Loss, Above Ours and Street
- In 1Q26, PGAS posted revenue of USD 930 mn (–11.7% QoQ; –3.8% YoY), reflecting softer trading volume and normalization from a high 4Q25 base. 3M26 revenue came in below our (22.1%) and consensus (23.4%), indicating weaker-than-expected top-line delivery. - Operationally, margin improved, with gross profit of USD 158 mn (–19.5% QoQ; +12.3% YoY) and EBIT at USD 119 mn (–21.4% QoQ; +16.9% YoY). Gross margin expanded to 17.0% (+2.4ppt YoY), driven by stronger gas distribution margin at 24% (vs 20% in 1Q25), offsetting weaker revenue base. Despite this, EBIT came slightly below our (21.7%) and consensus (22.3%). - At the bottom line, net profit of USD 90 mn (vs net loss of USD 23 mn in 4Q25; +45.8% YoY), mainly driven by lower forex loss alongside a swing in other income (USD 20 mn vs –USD 92 mn in 4Q25), lifting EBT to USD 136 mn (+140.2% QoQ; +29.3% YoY). 3M26 net profit came in above our (32.2%) and consensus (26.8%).

BCAS: DSNG IJ – 3M26 results –below ours but inline street estimates
- 1Q26 earnings changed by -6.1% QoQ and +14.4% YoY to IDR 421bn. Forming 17/20% of our forecast and consensus, respectively.
- 1Q26 EBIT changed by -21.5% QoQ and -3.8% YoY to IDR 563bn. Forming 15/18% of our forecast and consensus, respectively.
- 1Q26 Revenue changed by -14.3% QoQ and +7.7% YoY to IDR 2.8tn. Forming 22/23% of our forecast and consensus, respectively.
- Operationally: 3M26 Nucleus FFB production increased by 1.8% YoY to 384Kt, meanwhile FFB external portion increased by 6.2% YoY to 107Kt. CPO production increased by 2.1% YoY to 140Kt with OER of 23.3% (+0.2% YoY), PK/PKO increased by 2.9/5.7% YoY to 26.7/8.5Kt. CPO sales volume increased by 18.4% YoY to 159Kt, PK/PKO product changed by +3.7/-26.7% YoY to 6.7/5.5Kt. ASP CPO/PK changed by -3/+4% YoY to IDR14.5/28.4mn per ton. We will review our forecast and TP

BCAS Insight Indonesia Fixed Income Market Daily Digest (id)

ergerger

Bank Tabungan Negara

14 March 2025 - 02.35pm

ergerger

AWAN

bonds

Fixed Income Daily Notes 28 April 2026

stocks

Indonesia Cabinet Reshuffle Appointed Six Officials on 27 Apr-26

stocks

Index Evaluation on IDX30, LQ45, IDX80, KOMPAS100, BISNIS-27, MNC36, SMinfra18, IDXESGL