Latest update: 13-10-2025, 20:17
MACROECONOMY
US Central Bank Balance Sheet Fell to USD 6.59 Tn as of 01 Oct-25
The US central bank balance sheet declined to USD 6,587,119 mn as of 01 Oct-25, down from USD 6,608,395 mn the previous week. On average, the balance sheet stood at USD 3,887,343 mn from 2002 to 2025, reaching a peak of USD 8,965,487 mn in Apr-22 and a record low of USD 712,809 mn in Jan-03. (Trading Economics)
Indonesia Retail Sales Rose 3.5% YoY in Aug-25
Indonesia's retail sales increased 3.5% YoY in Aug-25 (vs Jul-25; +4.7%), marking the fourth straight month of growth but at a slower pace, supported by continued govt. stimulus to sustain household spending. The moderation was led by weaker sales in food, beverages & tobacco (4.8% vs 5.1%), fuel (11.7% vs 14.4%), and cultural & recreational goods (2.5% vs 5.2%). Sales of household appliances (-1.8% vs +3.8%) and ICT equipment (-28.9% vs -12.5%) also declined, while clothing sales rebounded sharply (8.3% vs 0.2%). On a MoM basis, retail sales rose 0.6%, the first monthly gain in five months. (Trading Economics)
INDUSTRY
Indonesia Motorbike Sales Rose 7.3% YoY to 567,173 Units in Sep-25
Indonesia's motorbike sales increased 7.3% YoY to 567,173 units in Sep-25 (vs Aug-25; +0.7%). Despite the uptick, sales for 9M25 were down 0.7% YoY, indicating lingering demand pressure. On a MoM basis, sales fell 1.9% in Sep-25 after a 1.5% drop in Aug-25. In 2024, annual sales grew 1.5% to 6.3 mn units, within Association of Indonesian Motorcycle Industry (AISI)'s 6.2-6.5 mn target range. For 2025, AISI targets 6.4-6.7 mn units but may revise forecasts if weakness persists. (Trading Economics)
COMPANY
BCAS: 9M25 - 4W & 2W Sales

- Astra recorded sales of 33,535 units in Sep 2025 (-23.8% yoy and +9.7% mom). Astra's sales declined more sharply year-on-year compared to average industry (-5.4% yoy and -8.6% mom). Astra's market share rebounded back to 54% in Sep, after experiencing dropped to 49.5% in Aug 25
- Non-Astra brands showed declining mom sales, only Chery and Hyundai that increasing. 4W wholesales dropped 15.5% yoy and flat +0.5% mom in Sep-25.
- 9M25 4W-wholesales fell 11.3% yoy, accounting for 62-75% of Gaikindo's target of 750-900k sales in 2025. Weak demand, we lower our projection of 2025 4W sales to 750-770k (prev: 760-780k), we expect 4W sales at around the 62-70k/month in 4Q25.