Indonesia Eyes 5% Growth After US Tariff Cut

RESEARCH REPORT
Poultry – A Soft Peck in 2Q, But the Worst May Have Flown
- 2Q25F Preview: A Weak Quarter, But Not Bad Enough for Losses
- 2H25 Outlook: Seasonal Pickup and Early MBG Contribution
- Maintain O/W on Poultry Sector
(Please refer to our report here)

MACROECONOMY
Indonesia Eyes 5% Growth After US Tariff Cut
The Indonesian govt. expects economic growth to return to around 5% in 2H25 after the US reduced tariffs on Indonesian goods from 32% to 19%, the lowest in Southeast Asia. This, along with expanded EU trade ties, is seen as a chance to boost exports and investment. However, Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) warns the lower tariffs may instead reduce GDP by 0.11% due to increased US imports into Indonesia. (Bloomberg Technoz)

INDUSTRY
Indonesia to Boost Palm Oil Exports to European Union (EU)
The Indonesian govt. plans to boost palm oil and derivative exports to the EU under the nearing completion of IEU-CEPA deal to help drive 5% domestic economic growth in 2H25. The govt. will also expand electronics and textile exports to the US, supported by tariff cuts, to sustain double-digit export growth despite recent declines in palm oil shipments. (Bloomberg Technoz)

COMPANY
BCAS: ACES IJ – Jun-25 SSSG Remained Weak, Recovery Yet to Take Hold

- ACES SSSG in Jun-25 stood at -4.8% (vs -4.6% in May-25; +8.7% in Jun-24) , showing no meaningful improvement despite promotional boom sales campaign. This brought 1H25 SSSG to -2.9% (vs +10.7% in 1H24)
- Jun-25 sales came in at IDR 696bn (-0.7% MoM, +2.7% YoY) , bringing 1H25 cumulative sales to IDR 4.2tn (+3.5% YoY).
- To maintain its growth target despite ongoing demand weakness, the Co. launched several initiatives: opening 3 new stores in Jun-25; extending the Boom Sales campaign until end-Jul-25; and deploying boom vans as part of a rebranding push aimed at restoring store traffic and customer engagement.