2Q25 Results: Revenue Strength Meets Margin Challenges

We are pleased to report that TPMA delivered relatively solid 2Q25 revenue of USD 28 mn (+4.6% QoQ, -9.3% YoY), supported by a sharp rebound in transshipment volume, which surged to 4.3 Mt (+207.1% QoQ, +51.9% YoY), helping to sustain overall revenue resilience. Despite this operational strength, 1H25 revenue slipped to USD 54 mn (-8.2% YoY), slightly below our expectations at 43.4%. Continued weakness in 1H25 thermal coal prices, at USD 107/ton (-19.0% YoY) weighed down overall mining activity, leading to lower service rates and pressured profitability, 2Q25 gross profit fell to USD 8 mn (-10.9% QoQ, -20.7% YoY), while net profit declined to USD 4 mn (-35.5% QoQ, -24.7% YoY). Consequently, overall 1H25 gross profit fell to USD 17 mn (-14.5% YoY) and net profit clocked just USD 10 mn (-10.7% YoY), both coming in below expectations.

Falling Service Rates Overshadowed Throughput Momentum

Even though higher volumes were reflected in 1H25 TPMA performance, with barging inched up to 8.9Mt (+1.0% YoY) driven by improvement in long towing volume to 3.2Mt (+3.9% YoY), overall tug and barge contract price dropped to USD 5.0/ton (-10.3% YoY). What's more, floating crane ASP (c. 37% of total revenue) fell to USD 1.9/t (-17.4% YoY) amid a rise in volumes to 5.3Mt (+18.0% YoY). Slower fuel cost reduction, to just USD 10.1mn (USD 0.7/ton; -5.1% YoY vs. rev. at -8.2% YoY) further pressured overall margin performance.

“Try to Calm Down” Forecast

In fact, weak performance was a victim of sagging 2Q25 coal prices, reflecting softness in the global market. As the largest coal importer, China imports dropped to 106.9Mt (-6.9% QoQ, -20.0% YoY), while shipments from Indonesia fell to 7.7Mt (-28.3% QoQ, -45.3% YoY). Furthermore, the issue of HBA implementation, occasioned by USD 8.2/ton gap between HBA-2 and ICI-4 benchmarks (2Q25 HBA: USD 50.2/ton, ICI: USD 42.0/ton), led several customers to resist HBA adoption, looking at a price higher than that of ICI. However, Aug-25 price spread had plunged to USD 4.2/t, with ICI-4 price recovering to USD 41/t (+0.6% MoM) and Newcastle price at USD 115/t (+2.9% MoM), reflecting a more optimistic outlook for 3Q25 performance.

Strategy - Catching a Falling Knife

Strategy - Catching a Falling Knife

Andre Benas

Strategy

17 April 2024 - 02.11pm

Strategy - Catching a Falling Knife

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