When tourism becomes an increasing necessity
Despite geopolitical headwinds, PANR posted solid 1Q26 results, delivering +17% yoy revenue growth and a +6.6% yoy increase in net profit. Currency depreciation acts as a double-edged sword for the company: it yields higher margins for inbound trips but increases costs for outbound tours. Looking ahead, management maintains an optimistic outlook, projecting 10-15% growth for 2026F, driven primarily by inbound tourism and corporate incentive travel. Currently, PANR trades at an annualized 2026F P/E of 9.9x.

Strong top line growth, challenge on margin due to geopolitic tension
+23% yoy revenue growth in 1Q26, PANR reported robust 1Q26 results, booking IDR 1tn in revenue (+23% yoy). This was largely propelled by exceptional performance in the inbound segment, which delivered +34.7% yoy revenue growth. While expanding at a slower pace, outbound revenue also grew by +5.9% yoy to IDR 385.5bn, with corporate meetings and incentive travel remaining the primary drivers of demand. Consequently, net income expanded +6.6% yoy, reaching IDR 15.4bn. Operationally, pax handling for inbound and outbound travel and leisure increased by 22.9% and 16.8% yoy, respectively.
Pressure on margin due to Middle East conflict. GPM contracted by -1% to 8.6%, primarily driven by the escalation of the US/Israel-Iran conflict in late Feb-26. This geopolitical tension disrupted several Middle Eastern countries that serve as key transit hubs for European and US routes, forcing tourists to reroute, delay, or reschedule tours. Additionally, some customers originally booked on long-haul outbound tours opted to switch to shorter-distance destinations. On a positive note, despite these logistical disruptions, the company experienced zero trip cancellations.

PANR’s strength and advantages
Currency movement as natural hedge. The depreciation of local currencies in PANR’s inbound destination countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam) against the USD and EUR significantly benefits the inbound segment. Because revenue is predominantly generated in foreign currencies (mostly USD) while expenses are incurred in local currencies, this dynamic naturally expands margins. Conversely, outbound trips become more expensive for Indonesian travelers. However, because PANR serves diverse, well-capitalized segments—such as corporate travel, incentives, and leisure— these trips are typically planned and budgeted several months in advance, effectively buffering the immediate shock of currency fluctuations.
Digitalization driving efficiency. PANR has actively developed proprietary applications to streamline business operations and enhance cost efficiency across its client base.
➢ Corporate Online Booking Tools (COBT) to facilitate bookings (ticket and hotel) for B2B corporate clients. COBT is integrated with the airline system, allowing PANR’s corporate clients to make bookings 24/7. They can also customize specific terms, conditions, and per-employee budgets for flights, accommodations, and ground transportation (ticket, hotel and transportation). By automating the role of travel consultants, COBT has successfully reduced related expenses by 15–20%.
➢ ALVIS (panorama-jtb.com), an B2C online tour operator platform that provides personalized tour recommendations, serves as a digital memory bank for past trips, and features a loyalty point system. ALVIS also fosters community building by allowing customers to share reviews. This digital ecosystem significantly increases customer engagement and drives higher rates of repeat purchases.

Attractive valuation with solid outlook
PANR declared a dividend with a 46.6% payout ratio, totaling IDR 41.6bn. This equates to an IDR 30 DPS and an attractive 5.8% dividend yield based on the cum-date closing price of IDR 515. Looking at annualized 2026 figures, PANR is currently trading at a 9.9x P/E; below its regional peers at an average of 22.8x PE.
Following a strong start of 17% YoY top-line growth in 1Q26, management remains optimistic about achieving its target of 10–15% revenue growth for 2026F. This confidence is supported by a positive outlook for inbound tourism, a stable outbound leisure segment, and expectations of a stable gross profit margin.

Strategy - Catching a Falling Knife

Strategy - Catching a Falling Knife

Andre Benas

Strategy

17 April 2024 - 02.11pm

Strategy - Catching a Falling Knife

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