2024 Summary & 2025 Outlook
AKRA recently hosted its 2024 performance summary and 2025 outlook presentation. While unforeseen delays resulted in certain metrics falling short of expectations, Management remains confident it can deliver strong growth across key business segments throughout this year. We share the highlights:

Land sales for 2024 reached 37 ha, a figure significantly below the initial guidance of 110 ha. This shortfall was blamed on delays in finalizing a 60 ha transaction with a Chinese company, a deal which has been deferred to this year.
Early 2025 shows no signs of any slowdown in coal and mining industries, with AKRA projecting volume growth of 5–7% for the year, underpinned by a stable price spread. Retail fuel expansion remains a key growth driver. The Company pointed to the narrowing price gap between subsidized and non-subsidized fuel, suggesting this could boost non-subsidized fuel demand. BP is expected to grow its gas station network to 75–80 locations by 2025F, further strengthening AKRA retail business.
For FY24F, AKRA expects to report a net profit of IDR 2.2 tn, with 2025 guidance in a range of IDR 2.4–2.6 tn. Growth is powered by a 5–7% increase in core business volumes, higher contributions from the mining sector and new chemical product supply lines.

We maintain a BUY call with lower TP
The sharp decline in AKRA share price may be primarily attributed to delays in land sales, particularly the 60 ha deal – one now anticipated to close in 2025. Despite this setback, the Company does remain confident about completing this transaction promptly this year. We maintain our BUY rating, while adjusting our TP downward to IDR 1,360 (prev. IDR 1,745), using EV/EBITDA 2025F std -1 at 7.92x. If the deal materializes as planned, we are confident the Company has significant upside potential, and could reprice closer to its historical levels.

AKRA - Not yet Summertime

AKRA - Not yet Summertime

Elgin Gavriel Liman

PT AKR Corporindo Tbk

09 January 2025 - 08.04am

AKRA - Not yet Summertime

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