EBITDA Inflection: On Track and Accelerating

EBITDA/TPV improved 200bps YoY to -0.6% in 1Q26, the sharpest single-quarter improvement on record.
Opex/TPV has declined every year for five consecutive years (16.3% in FY2020 to 6.4% in 1Q26), driven by
AI deployment across merchandising, demand forecasting, and logistics, where incremental revenue now
scales on a lower cost base. Monetization is also ahead, with take rate reaching 9.9% in 1Q26, already above
our FY2026E assumption of 8.8%, where every additional 30bps on IDR 83tn TPV translates into
approximately IDR 250bn of incremental gross profit without volume growth. We estimate EBITDA of –IDR
1,510bn or -1.8% of TPV in FY2026F, with breakeven expected by 2029, 3P complete its mix repositioning
and physical store expansion absorb working capital, against a gross margin floor of 15-16%

Institutions: 40% of Revenue, Zero Consumer Sensitivity

Institutional demand remains resilient, anchored by approved budgets and operational contracts, making
it driven by GDP (5.1-5.2%) rather than household consumption. Growth is increasingly driven by wallet
expansion, with spending per client rising +33% YoY in FY2025 to IDR 111mn, accelerating to IDR 112mn
(+125% YoY) in 1Q26, supported by BELI’s expansion in smartphones and home appliances across regions.
Monetization has also deepened meaningfully, with rates increasing from 49% to 72% over two. Once
embedded, switching costs are high. The decline in active clients from 55,700 to 43,800 in 1Q26, reflects a
deliberate quality shift, with spending per remaining client continuing to accelerate. With regional
expansion outside Java ongoing, we estimate Institutions net revenue of IDR 10,828bn or +20.9% YoY in
FY2026E, making this our highest conviction segment.

Physical Stores + 1P: Part of the Growth Is Already Locked In

A meaningful portion of FY2026 growth is already secured, with 29 of the 61 stores opened in FY2025
launched in 4Q25 and contributing only 1-2 months of revenue, implying a full year uplift without relying on
new openings or demand recovery. Same-store sales growth (SSSG) above 30% from mature stores, which
we conservatively normalize to 15–20% in line with private consumption trends. BI rate at 4.75% reduces
monthly instalments for mid-range smartphones by IDR 30–50k, unlocking demand from consumers just
below the affordability threshold. On the 1P side, devices purchased during 2020-2022 are entering their
natural 3–4 year replacement cycle, positioning BELI to capture this upgrade demand as the only
distributor operating both Samsung (81 stores) and Apple/Hello (34 stores) flagship formats alongside a
scaled online platform. We estimate Physical Stores revenue of IDR 8,189bn (+16.6% YoY) and 1P Retail at
IDR 5,421bn (+14.2% YoY), with further upside if BI rate cuts materialize ahead of 2H26.

tiket.com: Flight Exit Weights on Revenue, Mix Shift Protects Margin

3P net revenue is estimated at –IDR 1,102bn or -28.9% YoY in FY2026E, reflecting a deliberate low margin
flight volume, further weighed by weaker purchasing power and elevated international airfares. This is
partly offset by higher margin segments, with room nights growing 15% and lifestyle tickets 25%. A weaker
rupiah structurally redirects demand toward domestic travel. We assume flat to declining flight volumes,
mid-teens growth in accommodation and lifestyle, with take rate moderating on mix but margin quality
improving on per-transaction basis as accommodation and lifestyle take larger share, even as blended
take rate moderates. We maintain BUY with a target price of IDR480/sh or 2.0x EV to Sales on FY2026E
gross revenue of IDR 28,7tn, implying +31.9% upside. Key risks include a 10% YoY decline in TPV per user
to 6.2mn in 1Q26, increasing reliance on higher cost acquisition, concentration risk with Samsung, rupiah
depreciation outpacing ASP adjustments, and a slower 3P recovery if global conditions remain volatile.

BBNI - Awaiting Brighter Skies in 2024

BBNI - Awaiting Brighter Skies in 2024

Mardy Sutanto

29 January 2024 - 02.23pm

BBNI - Awaiting Brighter Skies in 2024

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Infrastructure

ISAT - A good kick-off to uncertain times

Property

BSDE - Luxury Footing on Difficult Ground

Cyclical

BELI - Compounding, Confirmed