Booking costs in advance
The size of integration-related costs was higher than expected, leading to larger-than-anticipated loss in EXCL’s 4Q25 results. On the positive side, ARPU surged 15% qoq, driven by strong growth in data traffic, despite a decline in subscribers. During the integration period, the company may continue to report negative bottom-line results; however, its cash-generating ability remains solid. We remain confident in EXCL’s long-term growth potential and the realization of future synergies. We maintain our BUY rating with target price of IDR 5,000.

4Q25: Key highlights
• Revenue. EXCL booked IDR 11.9tn in 4Q25 revenue, up 3.9% qoq, mainly driven by data and digital services (+5% qoq). Full-year 2025 revenue reached IDR 42.4 tn, meeting 100% of our forecast.
• Blended ARPU saw exciting growth… Blended ARPU rose 8.7% yoy and 15.2% qoq to IDR 44.8 thousand in 4Q25, lifting FY25 blended ARPU to IDR 39.5 thousand. The 4Q25 ARPU exceeded our estimate of IDR 41 thousand (pre-merger level) . … despite concerns regarding the sustainability of subscribers. Total subscribers declined 8.3% qoq to 73 million in 4Q25 (vs. 79.6 million in 3Q25). Despite this, management views the remaining base as higher quality—stickier and with higher usage. Data traffic still grew 2.4% qoq to 3,998 PB, alongside higher ARPU, indicating improved data yield.
• Integration-related costs. In 4Q25, EXCL reported EBITDA of IDR 4.1 tn (-15.3% qoq) with 34.6% margin, and a net loss of IDR 1.82 tn. The slip was mainly driven by higher marketing expenses (+34% qoq) related to the 5G launch, one-off integration costs of IDR 1.0 tn, and accelerated depreciation of IDR 1.9 tn. Excluding these items, EXCL would have recorded normalized EBITDA of IDR 5.4 tn (45.8% margin) and normalized net profit of IDR 1.15 tn (9.7% net margin).
• 2025 Solid (normalized) numbers. EXCL delivered normalized EBITDA of IDR 20 tn in 2025 (47.4% margin), approaching peer levels in the high-40% range; and normalized PAT of IDR 3tn. The company generated IDR 17.5 tn in operating cash flow, paid IDR 4.0 tn in dividends, and ended 2025 with IDR 2.7 tn in cash. Excluding lease obligations, net debt to EBITDA remained healthy at 1.2x.
• 2026 guidance. Management anticipates an additional ~IDR 1 tn in integration costs and ~IDR 5 tn in accelerated depreciation in 2026. However, merger synergies of USD 250–300 mn per year are expected to increasingly materialize, with EBITDA growth projected at roughly 2x revenue growth.
Our view: Investor may need to wait longer for “normal” results, as integration-related costs will persist into 2026. We adjust our 2026 forecast to reflect (a) revenue growth driven by higher ARPU despite smaller subscriber base, and (b) the expected accelerated depreciation, which leads to negative bottom line estimate. We revise our 2026 ARPU assumption up to IDR 45 thousand (from IDR 42 thousand), supported by strong ARPU momentum in 4Q25 and rising demand from the recent 5G rollout.

Banking - Consolidate… or Moon

Banking - Consolidate… or Moon

Mardy Sutanto

27 February 2024 - 10.03am

Banking - Consolidate… or Moon

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